| Linking up or giving transit? Ahmed Sadek Yousuf takes a wholesome look at the political and economic reasons for and against the recently approved Asian Highway Project  As soon as the cabinet of ministers officially decided to promulgate the original charter of the Asian Highway as envisaged by the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) on June 15, it officially changed its stance, swaying from the BNP led government's perspective that had opposed the UN ESCAP sponsored routes on the grounds that these would be tantamount to granting neighbouring India a transit corridor. By deciding to accept the trade routes, the government has garnered mixed reactions coming from a whole myriad of quarters, giving rise to a debate about the current Asian Highway project, yet to be implemented. According to media reports, the proposal, as initially aired by the communications ministry, will be sent to the UNESCAP once approval on the proposal has been obtained from the cabinet. If the plan comes to materialisation, then this would see Bangladesh connected to other nations such as Japan, South Korea, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Nepal, the Philippines, China, Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cambodia, Bhutan, Georgia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Laos and Malaysia, among others, via a strategic trans-national road highway system. The current administration has agreed to include three routes for designation by UNESCAP as Asian Highway routes. They are: the 495 km AH 1 (marking its entry point in Benapole, connecting Dhaka, Kachpur, Jessore, Sykhet and Tamabil in a singular route), the 805 km AH 2 (which originates from Banglabandha of Panchargarh, and connects Hati-Kamrul of Sirajganj, Dhaka, Kachpur and Tamabil) and the 752 km AH 41 route (linking Mongla of Bagherhat, Khulna, Dhaka, Jessore, and Teknaf of Cox's Bazar in a single highway). Among these three, as per the original proposals, routes AH 1 and AH 2, both of which marks its entry and exit points to India, will be utilised as the international trade routes, while the AH 41 route, which essentially connects the two major sea ports of Chittagong and Mongla to Dhaka, will have a sub-regional status. The official line maintained by high-ups within the communications ministry reportedly has been one of optimism, with the communications minister stating that the current administration '…does not want Bangladesh to remain isolated while its neighbours move ahead.' According to its proponents, the inking of the deal would eventually lead to Bangladesh multiplying its volume of trade greatly and thus massively contributing to Bangladesh's economic development. Detractors While advocates of the current iteration of the Asian Highway may point to the perceived economic benefits that stand to be gained from its implementation, there remains a substantial barrage of staunch opposition to the deal. 'Such a step will inevitably compromise Bangladesh's national security and also pose a variety of other problems,' says Major Hafizuddin, a senior BNP leader about the move. Rather ominously, he mentions that that there is quite a slim but major probability that Indian truck drivers coming to Bangladesh may help spread the dreaded AIDS disease through the general populace in Bangladesh. In his opinion, it would serve the nation a lot better if Bangladesh gets the highway to be connected via Myanmar. It needs to be mentioned that the Asian Highway proposal was originally put forth in 1995/96, and the UNESCAP, which comprises of 32 nations, had helped draw the trade routes for Bangladesh. It aims to bridge together the distant corners of the Asian continent, however, the two international routes mark their entry and exit points to India, and as such, a certain notion had developed within the then-BNP administration that promulgation of such an agreement would amount to granting India undue favours and hence the hesitation. Thus the deadline of December 31, 2005 went by and the Bangladesh government was, yet to get out of the official limbo, with regards to signing the agreement. Khondoker Delwar Hossain, secretary general of BNP, also opposes the current proposal. He opines, 'the move will greatly undermine Bangladesh's economic prospects as well as compromising national security.' Likewise, many experts have also had sound concerns regarding the promulgation of the Asian Highway treaty. Importantly, there remains a school of thought that maintains the current format of the Asian Highway system in Bangladesh will do disproportionate favours to the Indian economy than to the Bangladesh economy. 'The current format of Asian Highway as agreed upon by the government will only present India with a grossly disproportionate advantage, especially when seen in the context of India's relatively larger economic base and output,' says Dr Mahbub Ullah of the department of Development Studies, Dhaka University. He adds, 'the Asian Highway project for Bangladesh necessitated the involvement and inclusion of another nation into the reckoning for maximum economic viability, in this case, Thailand. In the end it will not be Bangladesh that will emerge the victor out of this, but rather India, who will stand to gain more economically.' 'This latest proposal is very much akin to granting India transit, and as such Bangladesh will not stand to gain much. So is this not granting India undue favours?' asks Farhad Mazhar, a renowned intellectual. He feels that economic, ecological as well as environmental evaluations need to be undertaken before granting the project operational status. 'By opening up the nation at vital points to India, this may seriously compromise Bangladesh's security. The current format of the Asian Highway can in no way be deemed as Asian Highway, but rather as 'a transit corridor' for India.' Proponents The government, meanwhile, sidetracked the issue of providing transit and instead pointed to the overall benefits. Senior AL leaders also pointed out that the routes are yet to be finalised. 'The various apparent contentious issues, which includes the question of transit, do not arise from the Asian Highway Network agreement, which the Bangladesh government had only expressed the approval to sign,' says agriculture minister and senior Awami League leader Motia Chowdhury. 'It is only after the signing of this agreement will UNESCAP take on the responsibility to assign the trade routes for Bangladesh.' 'At this stage, the trade routes have yet to be finalised and confirmed, so how is it that many quarters keep telling that the trade routes will inevitably have their entry-exit points to India?' she asks. 'Actually a whole, rather indifferent issue has been spun off from this rather small issue of the Asian Highway Network agreement,' says Awami League presidium member Suranjit Sengupta. 'The aspect of paramount importance is ensuring roadway connectivity to the rest of the world via the Asian Highway. As Bangladesh is surrounded from almost all sides by India, and if the routes all exit and enter Bangladesh via India, then so be it. There is no need to spin a big fuss out of this,' he added. 'The previous BNP government had a golden opportunity to connect Bangladesh to the rest of the world via the Asian Highway, but they chose to spurn the proposal on the grounds that this would amount to transit for India,' he added. 'It is utter nonsense. Anyone whose priorities are fixed upon taking Bangladesh up the developmental ladder will definitely take the best decision.' Dr Rahmatullah, who was once the director of UNESCAP, agrees. 'When you are almost surrounded from all sides by India, it becomes very apparent that at least one major trade route has to pass through India,' he says.. He adds, 'the paperwork behind the proposal strictly mentions that the proposal should only take into account the factors and circumstances behind establishment of the road network. Thus it becomes clear that any provision for transport of foreign vehicles be accommodated by a different treaty, which is different and not bound by the original Asian Highway Treaty.' The routes Rahmatullah informs that under the original format of the Asian Highway route network in Bangladesh, the UNESCAP had chosen Astagram of Sunamganj as the exit point for international routes AH 1 and AH 2 to India. Accordingly, this proposal called for Astagram to be linked to Karimganj, Shiulchor, Imphal and finally Tamu, which lies at the Indian-Burmese border. 'This idea, was originally pitched by the BNP government who were less intent upon granting approval of the UNESCAP proposed routes. However under the proposal as aired by UNESCAP originally, the AH 41 route which, the then-government preferred as a route to Myanmar, is actually a sub-regional route, and not intended as a cross national route,' he says. He explains that such a policy was back then seen to keeping in line generally with the country's 'Looking East' policy. According to Rahmatullah, in late 1995, the Bangladeshi communications ministry, which was then spearheaded by Col Oli Ahmed, had decided to shift the exit point to India from Astagram to its present day location Tamabil. Hence, as an inevitable aftermath, the new, and current charted highway path to Myanmar, which thus connects Tamabil, Shillong, Guwahati, Dimapur, Kohima Imphal and Tamu, resulted. However, at about 600 km long, the current route (from Tamabil to Tamu), unlike the previous proposed route (Astagram to Tamu), was almost thrice the length of the earlier proposed route. 'Thus, it becomes apparent that the new exit point as mandated by the government and agreed upon by the government and the Indian government, only led to an even more lengthy and roundabout route to Myanmar, which is at best uneconomical, especially when seen in perspective of the fact that a previous far shorter route to Myanmar, via India, was available, which started from Astagram. The decision was at best suicidal for Bangladesh,' says Rahmatullah. However, according to recent media reports, while denying the charges, the former communications minister accused some officials within UNESCAP, in conjunction with World Bank officials, of choosing Tamabil as the exit point with the sole intention of keeping all entry-exit points only within India. He reportedly further mentioned that he had always tried to advance the notion of connecting Chittagong - Cox's Bazar to Gundum, which would then link up with Myanmar. Around late 2004, the then-communications minister Nazmul Huda signed a memorandum of understanding with Myanmar to build a cross national highway to Myanmar (dubbed as the Friendship Road Link), covering two km in Bangladesh, and 23 kilometres in Myanmar. The stretch of the proposed road link was to span from Balukhali, Cox's Bazar and pass through Gundam to Bauli Bazaar in Myanmar. 'This agreement was strictly a bilateral one,' says Rahmatullah. As per the original proposal, the Bangladeshi government had decided to wholly finance the construction of this road link. He further claims: 'this stretch of highway was to end at Bawli Bazar, which is not actually quite an important trading point, and furthermore from there, there aren't significant highway linkages to other regions.' Rahmatullah asks, given the lack of direct highway linkages between Bawli Bazar and other strategically important trading points in Mynamar, is there any real economic gain to be exacted from building the highway? According to Rahmutallah, there were various factors behind the Myanmar government's decision to spurn Dhaka's advances for an Asian Highway route to Myanmar. 'The first reason as cited by the Myanmar administration was that, as mentioned earlier, there is a complete lack of an appropriate highway that can be used as a connecting bridge between the two countries,' he says. It is worth mentioning that the BNP government had proposed fusion of the AH 1 route, starting from Benapole, with the AH 41 route that connects Dhaka with the major sea ports of Mongla and Chittagong as well as Teknaf, as marking the first step towards re-routing the AH 1 highway to Myanmar. 'Not surprisingly, the UNESCAP members, prominently China and India, as well as Myanmar rejected the proposal. However, the actual thorny issue has been a lack of a connecting highway between Bangladesh and Myanmar which obviously is of great need if the Bangladesh government is intent upon securing an Asian Highway corridor via Myanmar,' he informs. The above reasoning of the then Bangladeshi administration however is not quite surprising, especially when viewed from the context of economic priorities. The BNP led government, for quite some time had insisted upon building a prosperous economic relationship with the economically successful nations of South-East Asia as well as China. It required a passageway through Myanmar, and thus it heavily hinged upon Myanmar's opinions regarding the revised proposal as pitched by Dhaka. It is only member nations of UNESCAP, which has ratified the existing Asian Highway framework, that can suggest and thus call for revisions in the planning and structure of the various routes of the Asian Highway, Rahmatullah further informs. Ratification In hindsight, though, while a highway route directly through Myanmar will obviously do a whole world of good for Bangladesh, the Burmese government is yet to entertain Bangladesh's requests. However, it would appear rather logical that Bangladesh first ratify the current iteration of the treaty and then only subsequently propose any revisions as Bangladesh sees fit. According to a highly placed source, the Burmese government further did not help matters by not undertaking any action to extend the proposed highway from Bawli Bazar. Furthermore the issues regarding the Rohingya refugees, a pressing concern for the Burmese, have yet to be sorted out between the two nations. As of recent media reports, Myanmar authorities have reportedly expressed interest of further extending the roadway to China which would therefore be of great economic significance for Bangladesh as well. For the time being, the focus is strictly upon the implementation of the Friendship Road Link. It is only then that steps will be undertaken for extension of the road link into China and Thailand. Going back to the Asian Highway issue, some experts also questioned if having international routes making an exit to only one country from a given country is economically sound. 'This latest move on part of the government will work out fine given certain aspects, in that the same package or level of leeway and rights and privileges be extended for Bangladeshi transport as has been granted for Indian transport vehicles and their drivers,' says Professor Anu Mohammed, a professor of Economics within Jahangirnagar University. He concludes, 'equal empowerment of rights and fair enforcement of rules and regulations, on either side of the border, will help ensure success of the Asian Highway network,' he adds. At a glance * Cabinet officially decided on the Asian Highway Project on June 15, 2009 * AH 1 and AH2 routes have entry and exit points in India * Economically Bangladesh will benefit by linking up with other South-East Asian Nations : communication ministry * The original Asian Highway proposal was originally put forth in 1995/96 by the UNESCAP * Nation's economic prospects and national security will be compromised: BNP |
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