In a state of confusion?
The country is crawling with conspiracy theories and confusion; no one seems to know what lies ahead
by ANWAR PARVEZ HALIM
Confusion and mistrust has gripped the country's political area. Whether it is the political quarters, civil society, student community or the media, rumours are rampant everywhere. Even iftar gatherings are observed with suspicion and speculation as if some conspiracy must be hatching somewhere.
The prevailing confusion has given rise to acute restlessness in society. There is a general feeling that the nation is on the brink of something, but no one knows what, when or where. In these circumstances, there are hordes waiting in the wings, in the hope of having a slice of the power pie, in the advent of a change at the helm of governance. These ambitious persons are rushing to the embassy functions, speaking out at seminars, being voraciously vocal on the TV talk shows – all in the attempt to be seen and identified as potential leaders of the nation.
Where has all this confusion come from? From where have the speculations emerged? There are several pockets that generate these rumours. They come sometimes from the offices of political parties or from other sources and then spread like wildfire.
The 'theorist' of left politics in Bangladesh, Sirajul Alam Khan, would have his regular adda at Sheraton in the past. Now he has his gatherings opposite Sheraton, in the Sakura building, during the day. At night he has these at a school on Road 27, Dhanmondi. Leaders of both the ruling and the opposition parties join these gatherings.
Sirajul Alam Khan has long had a vision of a regional economic union and is preaching this to his followers. Reportedly, he is also behind the formation of at least 20 or so student and youth organizations, though these are still relatively unknown. His activities have caused many to speculate that he is searching for a 'third force'. Government intelligence agencies are also keeping watch on him. But the ground reality is that nothing is really happening there. Sources close to Sirajul Alam Khan say he has no short term plans. His gatherings continue till late, where he shares his views with his followers. He advises them to organize themselves. However, all of this is with a long term, 20 years vision in mind. He has no magic wand to change things overnight, says one of his supporters.
The recent roundtable meeting organized by the Chhatra League Foundation also caught everyone's attention. The main organizers of the roundtable were Nure Alam Siddiqui and Mahmudur Rahman Manna. Being of the reformist camp within Awami League and critical of the government in TV talk shows, Manna was also in focus. Speakers at the roundtable strongly castigated the government.
Chhatra League Foundation basically comprises former student leaders of East Pakistan Chhatra League. They include the likes of Nure Alam Siddiqui, Ismat Kadir Gama, Mazharul Haque Baqi, Abdur Rauf and others. They are all established citizens of the society and are not involved in Awami League politics. They formed this foundation about seven or eight years ago with an agenda for social work. Manna, though, is a post-independence student leader and so doesn't quite fit into the character of the foundation. However, he has joined hands with Nure Alam Siddiqui to highlight their importance to the main party, that is Awami League. Analysts feel they may use this to seek nomination from the party in the next election.
Awami League President, Sheikh Hasina, has not shown any interest in the Chhatra League Foundation, nor has she opposed it. She is confident that Nure Alam Siddiqui will not go against the interests of Awami League. On the contrary, it is positive for the party that he has gathered all these ex-student leaders under one banner. The party high command is unhappy with Manna, but do not consider him a threat. He does not have the clout to cause any upset to the party.
Within Awami League itself there are apprehensions concerning the role of the reformists, Tofael Ahmed, Abdur Razzak and Amir Hossain Amu. When Indian External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee came to Bangladesh on an official visit, he broke protocol to hold a meeting with Amir Hossain Amu, Tofael Ahmed and Suranjit Sen Gupta at the Indian High Commissioner's residence. This exclusive meeting gave rise to further speculation and consternation within the party that these leaders had a separate agenda up their sleeves. But inquiries reveal that these leaders have no agenda whatsoever and are extremely frustrated. Their political careers have taken a nosedive. Razzak is unwell and Amu has gone to perform Umrah in Saudi Arabia. As for Tofael, he is playing the role of the opposition within the government in parliament. These leaders are not involved with the recent activities of Chhatra League Foundation. Meanwhile, However, others of the foundation are still hoping that some unseen force will come along and place them in power.
A couple of years ago, Professor Shahida Obaid launched an organization called Gorbo Bangladesh. Now in her sixties, Shahida Obaid was deeply convinced by the vision of a young man from Chuadanga, Kamrul Hasan Nasim, about changing Bangladesh. She dubbed him as Bangladesh's 'Che Guevara' and went about delivering radical speeches at public meetings. She spoke at the popular TV talk show Tritiyo Matra, harshly criticizing Khaleda Zia and her family, and didn't spare Sheikh Hasina either (but on a softer tone). She announced she would hold a public meeting of one million people at Paltan. Not even 500 people turned up at the meeting. Her Gorbo Bangladesh which had caused ripples of speculation at the time, has now fizzled into nothing.
The there was an engineer Mohammed Enamul Haque who formed Desh Premik Mancha, a platform of patriots, and prepares themselves to come to the rescue of the nation if it was pitched into a crisis. He said that the country was indeed on the verge of a crisis and they were preparing themselves accordingly. They were ready to fill the vacuum of leadership. Whether they will be able to do so or not is a matter of conjecture, but they still publish press releases in the media at regular intervals.
Under the present circumstances, little organizations are springing up like mushrooms out of the blue. Everyone one such organization or the other is holding a seminar, roundtable or rally at the Press Club.
As for the leaders of the minor political parties, they are scurrying around town joining various iftar invites thrown by the larger political parties and other groups. At the drop of a hat, these leaders appear on TV talk shows, hitting out against the government. Many of these leaders are relatively unknown, even in their own constituencies. Though they cannot pull in half a dozen votes, they speak with such authority as if they are the only saviours of the country.
In the rat race also are ASM Abdur Rab, Kader Siddiqui, Ferdous Quraishi, Col. Oli Ahmed, General Ibrahim and Badruddoza Chowdhury. Many of them are perched on the fence, ready to jump to any of the two main parties if beckoned. They have no idea what lies ahead and so are hesitant to put all their eggs into one basket.
Political observers are analyzing Dr. Kamal Hossain's stance too. Other than during Mujib's rule, he has remained out of power most of his political career. But he does have connections with the West and so when he moves, it gives rise to speculations. Dr. Kamal Hossain has called for the Constitution to be amended again. He normally does not speak without a reason, but his agenda is yet to be discerned. (See PROBE, Issue 07 Vol. 10)
With the next election in view, the left camp has also been announcing alliances among themselves, though no alliance has been formed as yet. They speak out against imperialism, capitalism, etc, but have not organized plan of coming to power. Many of them, of course, have surrendered to the lure of the capitalists and are enjoying positions in power.
As for the civil society, those of the Awami ilk are enjoying the rewards of their loyalty, but those outside of this camp are mum. Their silence is confusing.
The bottom line is that everyone is confused. Each camp eyes the other with suspicion. Conspiracy theories abound. Lobbying is on in full swing. But no one knows what lies ahead.
The power and gas crisis, spiraling prices, deterioration of law and order, traffic jams, crisis in the communication sector and other problems, has simply exacerbated the rumours. Adding to the confusion are remarks like that make by Minister Syed Ashraful Islam who said that a plot is being hatched to assassinate the Prime Minister. This just adds fuel to the fire. So for drawing rooms of the city elite to the village tea stalls, everyone is pondering on the political future of the country. Uncertainty prevails
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