[ALOCHONA] Will There Be Elections in Bangladesh This Year?

Will There Be Elections in Bangladesh This Year?

FARID BAKHT

The caretaker government claims it will hold elections before end
2008. However, the generals and their advisers will be worried about
the outcome. All has not gone according to plan in the removal of
Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia from the domestic political scene and
the management of the economy has been dismal.

THIRTY MILLION mobile phone subscribers in Bangladesh recently
received a text message from chief adviser Fakhruddin Ahmed with the
message, "Let us build a terrorist- and corruption-free country".
The caretaker government celebrated its first year in power on
January 11. If we are to take the government at its word, it will
oversee elections by December this year and then gracefully leave
the scene early in 2009. At this juncture, very few people feel
certain that this will turn out to be the case.

This is in contrast with the views of some western diplomats. After
a meeting with the foreign affairs adviser, the US charge d'affaires
recently said: "I am hopeful, I am confident and I am certain that
elections will be held by the end of 2008". The British equivalent
chimed in with similar comments. With growing disquiet over the
number of arbitrary arrests, allegations of torture and restrictions
on the media, the regime takes comfort from the unwavering support
of its "development partners".

After the generals installed ex-World Bank official, Fakhruddin
Ahmed, it became clear that they had a far wider agenda than merely
preparing the country for elections. They followed a twin-track
strategy: (i) emasculation of the main political parties; (ii)
support for the creation of a new political party.

The new political party was to be allowed to grow into a national
political force, offering a clean alternative to the discredited
Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Awami League. In "free and
fair" elections, this new force would form a democratic government,
allowing the army to step away from the spotlight, while providing
the steel to ward off any challenge from armed political activists.

Fresh on the heels of winning the Nobel Prize, Muhammad Yunus, of
micro-banking fame, launched a new party, Nagorik Shakti, or
Citizens' Power. This group was allowed considerable freedom of
manoeuvre at a time when the other parties were banned from
political activities under the state of emergency. The main
political parties were on the defensive as its leaders were placed
under arrest, thus clearing the space for the emergence of a new
party. The new party failed miserably as the people refused to take
it seriously, despite adulatory media coverage and obvious western
support. Ever since, the army has been scrambling for other options.

After much hesitation, the government, of dubious constitutional
legitimacy, produced a "road map" to elections. Normally, a
caretaker government supervises the election over a period of 90
days. The current one felt it needed 18 months to clean up the voter
rolls and ensure that elections are held properly. With such a long
time scale, the regime backed itself into a corner as it had to
manage the country within this period.

Low Scores for Year One
Under the caretaker government, food prices have gone through the
roof. The statistics of the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh show
that prices for the majority of essential food items (rice, flour,
milk, cooking oil, sugar, lentil, red chillies, onions and potato)
have risen by anywhere between 26 per cent and 70 per cent under the
current regime. A common variety of coarse rice which costs less
than 9 takas (Tk) a kg a year ago is now selling for Tk 31 in the
capital. Flour has climbed from Tk 26 to Tk 41.

The garment industry continues to remain in turmoil. In January,
over a 100 workers were injured in clashes with police in Mirpur, in
Dhaka and several factories had to shut down temporarily. The
government blames this on a conspiracy. The investigating officer
told journalists: "we are trying to unearth the mystery behind the
sudden workers' unrest". The workers think there is no mystery. They
cannot survive on low wages in the face of spiraling prices.

Foreign investment has plummeted by over 80 per cent. No decisions
have been made regarding the proposals by the Tatas and Global Coal
Management (formerly Asia Energy). In total, proposals worth $ 10
billion are awaiting decisions. With prominent businessmen on the
run and a wait and see attitude among entrepreneurs, domestic
investment declined by 36 per cent in the first half of 2007. No new
power plants were brought on stream and the country embarrassingly
suffered two complete blackouts.

A clash between students and an army unit in Dhaka University
escalated into a national student revolt. Over 80,000 arrests were
made. As a consequence, Dhaka and Rajshahi university professors are
in jail. Students and lecturers are wearing black armbands, eerily
reminiscent of protests in 1970 against the Pakistani military.

For non-performance, three out of the 10 advisers were forced to
quit office in January, including the reviled Moinul Hossain (media
tycoon and erstwhile law adviser). The regime has surprised even its
enemies with its inability to steer the ship to calmer waters. The
unspoken contract was for better and more efficient government at
the expense of political rights, at least in the short run. That has
clearly not been the case.

What Is in Store in Year Two?
Much depends on the trials of Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia. One
option is for a revival of the "minus two" formula where the two
leaders are encouraged to leave the country for exile, rather than
serve a jail term. Having failed in 2007, the chances are low this
year too. Both know that leaving the country would affect their
political fortunes and they also cannot trust their lieutenants.
Already, the BNP has split. One faction led by the ex-finance
minister, Saifur Rahman, is colluding with the regime.

By comparison, the Awami League is maintaining cohesion and
demanding early elections, which they threaten to boycott unless
Hasina is freed. While in court to face corruption charges, Hasina
made a defiant statement: "The Awami League must gear up for early
national polls as there is no alternative to elections to save the
country from dictatorship… It is time (that) the Awami League
launched a movement".

The generals still seem to want to divide and rule, or at least
ultimately call the shots from behind. Officially, the soldiers are
denying any such agenda. In a television interview earlier this
month, the army chief Moeen U Ahmed said that he had no "wish" to be
the country's president. "In this age, the world does not welcome
martial law… It is even possible to hold the voting well ahead of
December". The fact that he is regularly asked about his intentions
suggest that the public is not convinced.

The options boil down to four:
(i) Hold elections this winter: With a split BNP, and no sign of
either faction resurrecting the alliance with a so-far unscathed
Jamaat, the likelihood would be for an Awami League victory. Many
would then say: back to square one. Tagged to that would be a
reconfiguration of a broadly Islamic opposition, with all that
entails.

(ii) Form a national unity government: To sustain credibility, this
would necessitate the inclusion of the Awami League and BNP. While a
grand alliance may work in Germany, it is difficult to see how such
a group of bickering politicians could run the economy and provide
stability. This might work (for a time) if Khaleda Zia and Sheikh
Hasina were ejected, and the army were to hold the ring. Without the
participation of the two parties, no one would buy the concept and
it would become a broader version of the present interim
administration.

(iii) Fakhruddin Ahmed keeps the show rolling: Barring an incredible
turnaround in fortunes and performance, the chances of this
happening are almost zero. The public would expect an election to be
called or another form of administration. The status quo is unstable
and would fly in the face of all the commitments made.

(iv) Full military take-over: The military could only resort to this
if all else failed, and they are afraid of repercussions and witch-
hunts. Or there is some sort of enduring threat, such as an armed
insurrection. This could be on the lines of the Islamic (JMB)
bombing campaign of 2005-06. There is no sign of this for now, with
the leaders executed, the remnants have not regrouped. Media reports
occasionally indicate arrests and capture of bomb equipment. A
complete military coup is still unlikely and probably not the
preferred option.

The generals will be crossing their fingers and hoping that the
country will be lucky and avoid more natural disasters. They will
also hope that food prices decline. They are banking on a bumper
boro (winter) crop, to make up for the shortfall in the aman crop.
The chief adviser has directed that the Power Development Board
supply electricity for 250,000 electric pumps and diesel for 1.1
million diesel pumps, even at the expense of urban consumers. He,
along with the generals, finally realise that agriculture holds the
key.

Furthermore, they will have to secure business support, which means
back-peddling on the corruption drive against entrepreneurs.
Similarly, they will have to release the academics, to placate the
restive students.

Lessons from Thailand

The Bangkok cycle of military intervention is ahead of Dhaka's. In
the parlance of Bangladeshi politics, the Thai junta followed
a "minus one" policy – getting rid of Thaksin Shinawatra, when he
was prime minister. They have recently had an election, with the
result that Thaksin's party is on its way back to power. The
generals cannot be overjoyed with the outcome.

This will be going through the minds of the Bengali generals. So far
the "minus two" policy has not even got off the ground. The generals
have also gone further than the Thai junta in their hot pursuit of
politicians and businessmen. If elections are held this winter in
Bangladesh, who is to say which set of vengeful politicians will be
back at the helm?

http://www.epw.org.in/uploads/articles/11467.pdf

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