[ALOCHONA] The Economist Bangladesh Forecast

The Economist Bangladesh Forecast

 

 

Forecast
Mar 7th 2008
From the Economist Intelligence Unit
Source: Country Forecast

 

 

Outlook for 2008-09

• Preparations are under way for municipal elections to take place during April-May 2008, but doubts remain about whether the Election Commission (EC) can meet a series of deadlines before a parliamentary poll is held in October.
• The caretaker government is likely to relax some of the restrictions imposed under the current state of emergency, but it is unlikely to sanction an end to emergency rule before the next parliamentary election.
• Despite a range of electoral reforms, the next election battle will be fought between long-standing rivals, the Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party—the two largest political parties.
• The budget deficit in fiscal year 2007/08 (July-June) is expected to rise to the equivalent of 5% of GDP, compared with the official target of 4.7%.
• In the light of the downward revisions made to the Economist Intelligence Unit's GDP forecast for the US, real GDP in Bangladesh is now expected to grow by 5.7% in 2007/08 (compared with 5.8% previously).
• We expect consumer price inflation to average 8.7% in 2008, after recording an average of 9.1% in 2007.
• The trade deficit is expected to swell to record levels, as demand for industrial raw materials strengthens and international oil prices stay high.

Monthly review

• Foreign governments have urged the interim administration to lift the state of emergency and to hold parliamentary polls as soon as possible.
• Comments from EC officials in February indicated that a lot more work was needed before a date for the next election could be set. So far, only 30m out of some 80m voters have been registered.
• A recent high court ruling has raised doubts about the legality of the current court case against Sheikh Hasina Wajed, a former prime minister.
• Students of Dhaka University staged a protest on February 12th, demanding the release of Sheikh Hasina.
• Multilateral donors have proposed a US$4bn programme to help improve the country's preparedness for natural disasters.
• Consumer price inflation increased by 11.6% year on year in December 2007.
• Exports grew by 2% year on year in first five months of the current fiscal year 2007/08, a marked slowdown from growth of 26.4% in the year-earlier period.

http://www.economist.com/countries/Bangladesh/profile.cfm?folder=Profile-Forecast

 

 

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