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Thursday, May 1, 2008

[ALOCHONA] TOTAL MILITARY RULE OR NATIONAL GOVERNMENT?

TOTAL MILITARY RULE OR NATIONAL GOVERNMENT? :Political options are limited for CG


After concluding pre-dialogue talks, the interim government is now set to initiate formal dialogue with the political parties. However, the dialogue, likely to begin by the second week of this month, possibly will be unpleasant for the two major political parties -- Awami League and BNP -- who have set a pre condition for the release of their respective party chief, Sheikh Hasina and Begum Khaleda Zia, for joining the dialogue.
Five advisers of the Caretaker Government (CG) who were involved in the pre-dialogue talks have submitted their report to Chief Adviser Dr Fakhruddin Ahme stating the position of political parties.
Bangladesh Awami League also submitted to the head of the CG a huge compilation of 2.5 million signatures demanding release of party president Sheikh Hasina. Awami League also organised token hunger strike programmes to press home its demands.
On the other hand, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) on Monday called on the military-controlled CG to release BNP chairperson Begum Khaleda Zia and Awami League president Sheikh Hasina to ensure their participation in the formal dialogues in order to make the talks between the CG and the political parties meaningful.
AL leaders also demanded creation of congenial atmosphere and confidence building measures for holding a fruitful dialogue.
Meanwhile, BNP Secretary General Khandaker Delwar accused the Election Commission of designing a plan to hold farcical elections. He also mentioned that "the dialogue was simply a drama...a part of their blueprint. An adviser says the election will be held without the two leaders... He is absolutely right as per their plan. They are conspiring to hold a farcical election and elect people of their choice". BNP already demanded the resignation of the chief and two other commissioners of the Election Commission.
While appearing before the court in a graft case, detained Awami League President Sheikh Hasina said she would not quit politics on anyone's dictates. "Everyone in the present CG that wants to keep me off from politics by filing cases must remember that I won't give up politics on anyone's instructions, she said.
At this stage, the options to the CG appears limited -- either to release the two top ladies and discard the minus-two plan, go ahead with the programme to hold elections without the participation of BNP and Awami League or create divisions and splinter groups both in BNP and Awami League to ensure their participation in the polls and show a credible election.
According to available information, the government is unwilling to accept the first option of releasing Hasina and Khaleda now. There may be a negotiation to set them free under certain terms and conditions. Conditions may be created to let them go out of the country and not to allow them to take part in elections.
However, the most suitable option for the present regime may be to hold elections with the participation of loyalists like HM Ershad of Jatiya Party, Professor Badruddoza Chowdhury of Bikalpa Dhara and Dr Kamal Hossain of Gano Forum. Newly floated parties like LDP of Dr Ferdous Quoreshi, Kalyan Party of Maj. Gen. (retired) Ibrahim and some Islami groups.
Fearing trouble during the future polls, some loyalists have asked the CG to hold elections under emergency rules and magistracy power to the military officials during the polls. The newly appointed US Ambassador to Bangladesh, however, spoke against polls under Emergency Rules.
Finding no other suitable option, the government may go for some contingency plan like imposition of either a complete military rule or a military-backed national government in case of violent resistance from the political parties.
Although the outgoing British High Commissioner made it clear that Britain would not support any military intervention in Bangladesh, it is not necessary to keep confidence in it because he was once of those foreign envoys who were instrumental in engineering the present CG. He, however, said that it would be a shame that if BNP and Awami League do not participate in the forthcoming polls

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