ON 9 June 2008, the Finance Adviser to the Caretaker Government presented the national budget for the financial year (FY) 2008-09 in a live broadcast over the national radio and TV. The marathon address touched upon almost all aspects of the nation's economic life - the difficulties surmounted and the successes achieved. While highlighting the budget performance last year, he also laid before the nation the socio-economic targets for the coming year and how the government planned to achieve those. He covered a wide vista of governmental activities from agriculture to industries, from education to employment, from communications to power generation. However, there was not a word on 'defence', despite it being one of the largest expenditure sectors of the government.
In the past, there used to be a few cursory remarks by the Finance Ministers in their budget speech promising to "build a strong defence force, able to safeguard the national sovereignty" etc. etc; but not this time. In the official website of the Ministry of Finance (www.mof.gov.bd) the allocation is reported to be Tk. 6306 crore (US$ 935 mil). Defence came out as the eighth largest sector, representing about 6.4% of the Government spending, ahead of sectors like Transport and Communications (6.1%), Health (5.9%) or Public Order and Security (5.6%). However, like the previous years, the nation remained in the dark as to the rationale behind the defence expenditure. While we know how much electricity the government plans to generate, how many new schools, hospitals or industrial estates the government plans to build or how much additional food grain we plan to harvest, we do not know what we plan to achieve with the money spent for defence. Unlike the developed countries of the west, defence expenditure continues to remain shrouded in secrecy in our part of the world.
Trends in defence spending
During the last financial year, while most government departments could not spend their allocated budget, the defence, like previous years, overspent and got additional budget of Tk.536 crore over the FY 2007-08 allocations. In fact, this had been the trend over the last five years when defence got additional allocation in the revised budget at the end of the year. Although the defence budget in the absolute term had been increasing, its share in the total national budget had been falling for more than a decade. While in the 80s and early 90s, the defence's share used to be around 10% of the total government spending, it has come down to its present share of 6.4%, down from 7% in FY 2007-08. The chart below shows that defence budget has been rising at a rate slower than some important socio-economic sectors. The rise in government spending on education had been particularly impressive.
However, we need to remember that while in all other sectors there are external assistance components the defence budget is exclusively self-financed. A sizeable chunk of the defence budget is spent on import of armament, spares and fuel, draining our scarce foreign exchange reserve. The "burden of defence" falls squarely on the national exchequer. If we consider the revenue expenditure, the share of defence rises to 6.8%. In terms of the GDP, defence expenditure in Bangladesh represents 1.15% of the GDP. One need to compare this with agriculture and rural development (2.8%), education (2.3%), health (1%), Transport and Communication (1.8%) and the total budgetary expenditure being 15% of the GDP. The defence expenditure of Bangladesh, when expressed as a percentage of GDP, is quite low compared to our neighbours India (1.99%), Pakistan (3%), Sri Lanka (6%) and Myanmar (3.3%) of the GDP..
Bangladesh security scenarioMilitary expenditure in South Asia is generally high compared to many developed countries of the west.. India-Pakistan rivalry over Kashmir fuelled an arms race for decades that ended up with both countries acquiring nuclear weapons and the delivery systems. India-Pakistan rivalry had posed serious security concerns not only for those two countries, but also for the region and even beyond. More recently, Islamic militancy and ethnic conflicts have posed serious challenges to the South Asian states. In countries such as Sri Lanka, ethnic insurgency has turned into virtual civil war. Another reason for high military expenditure is military's authoritarian presence in the national affairs as in case of Pakistan and Myanmar. In these two countries high military expenditure have resulted in a bloated military that is omnipresent in the national life turning the nations into militarised societies.
Fortunately, Bangladesh had long been an "island of peace" in an area of turbulent and violent inter-state relations. Our more than 3000 km long land boundary with India and Myanmar is well demarcated. There are small stretches of undemarcated boundaries with India, totalling about 5 kilometres, which we inherited as a colonial legacy. These irritants in our relationship could be solved across the negotiating tables. Our long sea boundary, however, remains undemarcated and could be a possible cause of conflict with the neighbours. As trade and commerce, businesses and investment grow within the South Asian states and our economies are increasingly intertwined, the chance of an armed conflict between the nations reduces. In fact, one could argue that the possibilities of Bangladesh being engaged in an armed conflict with any of its two neighbours is extremely slim at present or in near future.
The scenario changes, however, when we consider the unconventional threat to Bangladesh. Bangladesh has been the focus of international community because of the rising incidents of Islamic militancy in the country. The militants, although too weak to pose an immediate military threat, could be the source of external interference and internal instability. The nexus between the local Islamic outfits and their cohorts in India, Pakistan and Afghanistan are now well established. After massive punitive action against the organisations such as JMB, HUJI etc., there has been a period of lull in their militant activities, but frequent unearthing of bombs and explosives from the militant hideouts and the arrest of activists show that the militants are out there waiting for the opportune moment to strike.
While our primary focus had been on the Islamic extremists, there had been a simmering left-wing militancy going on in the countryside for years, especially in the extreme-poverty stricken north-eastern and western Bangladesh. With the upsurge of left-wing activities in the neighbouring Indian states, and especially with the coming to power of the Maoist political party in neighbouring Nepal, the left-wing militancy is likely to get a boost in Bangladesh. The combined onslaught of rightwing Islamic militancy and the leftwing Maoist insurgency could seriously endanger the national security of Bangladesh in the coming decades.
Our internal political instability, especially lack of institutional democracy in the country, will only benefit the extremist forces and would invite external interference. We need to adopt a comprehensive national strategy to meet the unconventional threat in which defence forces will be one of the key players, along with law enforcing agencies, financial institutions and socio-economic and educational organisation. A comprehensive approach would be necessary to tackle the problem because punitive action against the militants could be a temporary measure at best. It is, therefore, important that while we prepare our security forces to meet the future security challenges, we do carry our people along, because ultimately no plan or preparation can succeed unless it has the support of the broad mass.
Defence budget and popular participationSince the announcement of the budget, there has been debates and discussions on it some welcoming its positive sides, others pointing out its shortfalls. In fact, as the budget season approached, there were spate of write-ups, seminars and symposiums on issues such as agriculture, education, health, economy or environment participated by government representatives, intellectuals, politicians and even ordinary people. There were free exchange of views and many concrete suggestions to the government on the way forward. In the absence of a Parliament, these acted as useful forums for the government to measure the public opinion. However, it appeared that 'defence' is held as a taboo, kept exclusively for the military to sort out. Even academic research organisations that specialises on defence and security matters appeared to have ignored the defence budget issues.
One often quotes French Prime Minister Georges Clemenceau's (1841-1929) witticism, "War is too serious a business to be left to the Generals" as a justification of civilian control and oversight of the military. Most democratic societies are based on the principle of a civilian authority (President, Prime Minister, Congress, Parliament) that acting on the advice of the military hierarchy sets out the defence parameters and exercises control on the budget. On the other hand, intellectuals like Professor Samuel Huntington believes that civilian interference inevitably degrades the military efficiency, civilian non-interference in things military is the corollary of military non-interference in things civilian (and hence political).
There is much truth in both the views and often a mutual respect for each other, civilian and military authorities, is the best way forward. In that light, popular participation in the defence debate should be welcome. In Bangladesh, like elsewhere in the world, there are essentially two views. One, we might call liberals, who view military expenditure essentially a drain on the national economy, taking scarce resources away from social and economic sectors. The other, we might call conservative, who urges more for defence because they believe that security can ensure peace and stability that boosts socio-economic progress. Therefore, how much is enough for defence depends on which side of the fence you are.
Unlike the West, we do not publish "Defence White Papers" that actually sets out the goal, strategy and objectives of the forces over a period. Changes in the White Paper reflect the changes in the threat scenario. The details of the US or UK defence budget are published and available on the websites. Before the US Congress passes the defence budget, which is half of the world's total military expenditure, they call up the military bosses to justify their demands. TV channels broadcast these hearings live across the globe. In contrast, we, in Bangladesh have no knowledge of how the defence budget is spent. For a meaningful assessment and analysis one need to know what are the shares of the different Services Army, Navy and Air Force, how much of the money is spent for the administration i.e. pay, allowances etc. vis-à-vis on operation, procurement or training. What are the major procurements and what is the process. Ordinary citizen come to know of the procurement issues only when a scandal is allegedly unearthed. Thus, there is no meaningful response from the citizen. Even when the Parliament was in existence, there had never been any meaningful and critical discussion on defence matters. There used to be a Parliamentary Committee on Defence, but unlike other parliamentary committees, it did not really take off. The Parliament continued to guillotine defence budget every year on the last day of the budget session.
ConclusionBangladesh continues to make steady progress in all socio-economic sectors despite serious resource constraint and political turmoil. Our defence expenditure continues to be the lowest in the region. Despite resource constraint defence forces, over the years, have built up an impressive record of international recognition of efficiency and professionalism. We need to keep it up and in fact, bolster it. Therefore, every taka spent for defence must be well spent. The money spent for defence must buy us the "Peace and Security Dividend" that would ensure sustained social stability and economic progress for the nation.
While the finer details of the military budget will remain a matter exclusive to the military, its broad parameter and objectives may be made public so that the citizens have their say in the matters military. An honest, unbiased and rational analysis is possible only when sufficient data is available.. At present, available data on defence expenditure is too insufficient for the citizen to draw any meaningful conclusion. The Government need to come forward with more information for the people so that they have a sense of participation in building tomorrow's defence.
http://thedailystar.net/story.php?nid=44241