AL heading for impending crisis
Now that several weeks have passed since the national elections there
are several clear trends in the AL agenda that could ignite serious
opposition and which should be considered in the wider context of
national interest and security (see my article `A Nationalist Agenda
for Bangladesh'. The following list is the most serious and obvious
provocations of the AL thus far –
1. Creation of a regional taskforce with tactical operations
capabilities and extra-territorial functions could threaten the
internal stability of the country and make it a target for insurgents
and terrorists who had until now posed no threat to Bangladesh's
interests. The notion of foreign forces (particularly Indian) on
Bangladesh soil will be viewed with intense aversion by the public and
could give rise to strong and violent opposition. This proposal will
also be viewed with intense suspicion around the region and increase
tensions in South Asia.
2. Massive vote rigging, violence and intimidation during Upazilla
elections demonstrating an undemocratic state of mind and a deliberate
attempt to weaken local government.
3. Transit facilities without any prospect for wider regional
involvement and cooperation (i.e. China, Nepal and Bhutan) or proper
safeguards of our sovereignty and independence.
4. Reversion to the 1972 constitution with removal of Islam and a
return to `Bengali' as our national identity. This last had originally
sparked the CHT insurgency which was only countered after President
Ziaur Rahman amended the constitution and made us Bangladeshis which
is a concept based on territoriality rather than ethnicity clearly
separating us culturally and politically from West Bengal and India.
5. Attempts to repeal the 5th Amendment of the constitution which had
removed the highly unpopular BKSAL governance system established by
Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. The 5th amendment had also legitimized the
proclamations and proclamations orders issued during the martial law
regime of President Ziaur Rahman and which also ratified all actions
of the Martial Law authorities during that period.
6. Failure to fulfill election pledges of Tk. 10 per kilogram rice,
free fertilizer and employment for a member of every family in
Bangladesh. This will become harder to achieve as another global food
crisis is predicted for end of 2009 and which will extend well into 2010.
7. Reopening of events during the 2 year interim government of Dr.
Fakhruddin Ahmed especially possible investigation of the role of DGFI
and the armed forces. There is also likelihood of interference in the
military rendering it politicized, weak and dysfunctional. This
process appears to have already begun under Gen. Moin U. Ahmed and
will probably increase if he is granted a further extension for
`services rendered'.
8. Increase in criminality and particularly extortion of business
enterprises. There has also been intimidation and brow-beating of
business organizations and bodies to follow the government line on
policy matters which indicates a move away from free-markets and
capitalism. While restraining the natural inclination of business to
pursue increased profits in time of national emergency or economic
crisis can be justified this could under the AL government ultimately
take the form of scapegoating the entire business community for the
failures of government. This will probably become inevitable if the
global financial crisis takes a heavy toll in Bangladesh without
proper and effective measures and safety-nets being put in place due
to an incompetent and insensitive administration.
9 Campus violence that will gradually hamper our educational and
future potential to compete on a global scale.
9. Sidelining of opposition in parliament through controversial
seating arrangements and censoring of debates as broadcast on BTV.
Harassment of opposition party workers has already begun on a massive
scale.
10. Return to dynastic politics as members of the Sheikh's family are
exerting immense influence but without the responsibility or
accountability associated with their power which is exercised in a
largely unofficial capacity.
11. War Crimes Trials which is probably a ruse to distract from the
above failures and policies as any case will have to overcome the
amnesty given by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and the tripartite agreement
between India, Pakistan and Bangladesh on the exchange of prisoners.
This is also an attempt in conjunction with points 4 and 5 to
undermine religion based politics in Bangladesh. This will probably
have the effect of promoting extremism and radicalism by pushing
Islamic parties underground and could pose a threat to democracy and
also the stability of the country.
While many of the above proposals and acts are not official policy of
the AL government the party being largely a monolithic entity and also
ideologically quite rigid it is entirely unlikely any initiative could
proceed without the tacit approval of the leadership hierarchy. While
individually the above proposals and acts may appear innocuous when
taken together they signal a reassertion of the undemocratic and
autocratic nature of the Awami League and an overweening dependence on
India. Some of the proposals and policy initiatives listed above have
the potential to spark a hostile and violent reaction without
combination with other issues and these should be identified and
firmly opposed at the outset.
The question remains as to whether the BNP alliance can capitalize on
AL difficulties and its glaring failures. While the BNP has taken
steps to reorganize itself from the grassroots level the same stale
leaders and advisors remain in their positions. Those who brought the
BNP to its present debacle in the national elections still hold
positions of influence within the party and unless they are removed
with utmost ruthlessness and haste the party is likely to become
another Muslim League with ever decreasing returns in elections. It is
important that if the nationalist agenda is to survive in Bangladesh
the BNP has to remodel and refashion itself and become more
democratized and responsive to the needs of the people and country.
The only other alternative is for a completely new party to emerge but
this seems very unlikely under present conditions and circumstances.
This is not to say that this could not happen especially if the BNP
continues to advocate meaningless policies such as impeachment of the
president or some such similar nonsense. The main problem for the BNP
is that it is a party without an ideology and in its place opportunism
and greed has become qualifications for party membership. It is no
longer enough that it is the party that stands against the AL it must
be the party that stands for something. Unfortunately the party lacks
the intellectual depth or analytical skills to carry out the necessary
internal restructuring. To rectify this deficiency the party has to
push forward an aggressive agenda to weed out the useless and
incompetent from amongst its ranks and to establish a new dynamic
leadership structure that can meet the challenges of the 21st century.
MBI Munshi
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[Disclaimer: ALOCHONA Management is not liable for information contained in this message. The author takes full responsibility.]
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