[ALOCHONA] FW: [dhakamails] Solving the Energy Crisis

Some Questions !!!
 
(1) Can the agricultural sector make up the deficiency in supply of urea if all urea factories are shut down?
 
(Since Bangladesh has improved the agricultural productions drastically in the last few years and is producing food for almost the entire people of the country, not counting the natural disasters, the closure of the urea factories can result in the reduction of food production, and thereby increase hunger and food prices, damaging the country a lot.)
 
(2) Does the gas supply organizations such as Titas Gas, have enough resources to make significant improvements in the installations of extensive quantity of gas pipelines and increasing the pipeline pressure?
 
(3) What are the advantages of barge mounted power plants as opposed to traditional shore-mounted or river-bank mounted power plants?
 
(As the industry practice, a power plant generally refers to a large power producing facility, not a standby diesel generator for peak shaving of a utility supply at the times of maximum demands, or to offset the crises of utility power to a big building, an institutional campus, an industrial plant, or even a housing complex. These standby plants can be diesel or natural gas fired, and can be stationary or mobile. The mobile ones can be barge mounted, trailer mounted, truck mounted, or wheeled container mounted. The stationary units can be pad mounted. All large power plants shall be stationary and needed to be installed near a natural water source (River, lake, bay, sea, falls, bills, etc. to be able to get cooling water intake and discharge easily and continuosly during the unit operations. The discharge must be processed before letting it to go to the nature again. often times it needs discharge retaining ponds, open air and sunlight, bacteria culture, sedimentation & filtering plants, osmosis, and various other arrangements. A barge is incapable of doing all these and ultimately will be a source of natural water pollutions. No one thought that the tube wells will someday be a severe source of arsenic, rather than the best solution for drinking water. Someday the barge mounted power plants may be proven so.)
 
(4)  Does bangladesh have the enough resources to be able to buy huge amount of foreign currencies (even not being sure whether tomorrow the mostly accepted foreign currency will be dollar, euro, pound, or any other currencies that the current worldwide economic turmoil may result in inevitably.)?
 
(Bangladesh bank must boost the foreign currency as much possible based on the means of country and being helped by the exports and money sent to Bangladesh by the wage-earners and the NRBs. The resource shall be increased by appropriately collecting all taxes, stopping bribes, giving due process to the actors of financial frauds, and increasing the trust and cooperation amongst all, by creating a pleasant, stable, and reliable political atmosphere and setting up the rule of law through fully democratic way. Short of it will no way help in this respect. Also to make government debt selling institutions stable, productive, and popular amongst the citizens and the foreigners such that government can sell substantial amount of bonds and other financial products. Government must also aggressively pursue Grants, very low interest loans, and revenue/Toll paid loans for the physical projects. Revenue collection rates and procedures must be sustainably introduced, administered, and make result oriented. Let us install as many traditional stationary power plants as possible throughout the country using these financial resources and this approach will not strain the other sectors.)
 
(5)  Is not water scarce like electric power or even more throughout the country, not only in Dhaka?
 
(Crises in utility supplied electricity does reduce pumping capacity of water. However, water itself is in crisis. The amount of potable water the the entire country is very little compared to its demand. Underground water has proven detrimental to human health and natural aquafar system. The only presumable both long and short term solutions of drinking water is the surface water. Water of the monsoon shall be stored in natural or artificial conserving containment. Lot more pukurs & dighis have to be dug in and completely protected as the sources of drinking water only and not for bathing, washing and cleaning stuff as used to be done traditionally in the country. Some country programs have to be taken to install underground concrete vaults of large sizes for all house holds, collecting water from rains or natural sources during rainy seasons and using water from there as long as possible. This will reduce the burden on electricity.) 
 
(6) Is it not necessary to stop the practice of allowing the gas flame to remain lit for all times in the kitchen stoves, for conserving gas as well as increasing the fire safety for the homes?

(7) In supplying power by PDB to the consumers, are not two issues most critical, such as the shortages of (1) transmission lines, and (2) theft of energy by the joint effort of the dishonest contractors & consumers (bribe givers) and the dishonest employees of the power distribution sectors such as the meter readers, inspectors, estimators, revenue collectors, section employees and officers, etc. (bribe takers) ? Can these be eradicated from bangladesh? What are the plans and how? Did ethics, religions, and un-imposed weak laws could at all help to resolve this crisis of stealing energy?
 
(8) Has private sources of producing electric power and selling to Government been considered?
 
(9) Has the non-traditional means and methods of producing electric power by smaller amount form the natural/renewable sources of energy been planned, studied, public been encouraged to adopt, and attempted to reduce burden on the electric utilities?
 
(For example, it is easily possible to drive a generator of fairly small to medium sizes by a windmill fan, keeping a whole hose or a housing complex electrified. Solar cells along with batteries can be installed on all roofs, producing enough electricity for that house. It is also possible to miniaturized the model of the hydro-generators and run in the nearby stream, canals, rivers, falls, guisers, and sea/ocean tides. Like the drops of water make an ocean, when all these mini-sources of the electricity productions are added together, it will relieve the national grid a lot.)
 
(10)  Did anybody planned how can be electricity produced when natural gas will be unavailable?
 
(Natural gas reserve in bangladesh id not even 0.08% of the world's gas reserve. However, the gas consumption in bangladesh is quite high and it is predicted that the natural gas may not be available in Bangladesh after next 10/15 years, if miraculously, not a lot more gas reserves are discovered in the coming decade. So, coal may help but the only viable replacement of gas will be nuclear power source. Bangladesh is planning Russian made reactors which are extremely unreliable, created thousands of accidents in Russia and throughout the then USSR. Please look at India. Even being so big friend, India did not buy nuclear reactors from Russia. India is buying massive amount of nuclear power apparatus and equipment from USA because USA produces the best quality nuclear power products. So, Bangladesh must buy nuclear reactors from better reliable producers such as USA, France, etc. For nuclear power, quality and safety must be looked at before anything else.)
 
(11) Did Bangladesh think about building smart-grids and installing smart meters?
 
(Smart grids can receive/deliver power simultaneously from different varieties of sources of different quality and different rates and the smart meter can record different sources of power and the power of different rates, thus better serving the energy needs of the country.)
 
(12) Is Bangladesh taking serious steps for energy conservation and to encourage the consumers to use low rate powers at off-peak hours and thus reducing peak shaving needs, and be able to live with reduced generating unit sizes and reduced size of transmission/distribution cables?
 
There may be many more questions but these are some useful thoughts that might contribute to alleviating the power crises in Bangladesh.
 
Thanks and have a great day.
 
Regards,
KR
 
 

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To: dhakamails@yahoogroups.com
From: bd_mailer@yahoo.com
Date: Sun, 26 Apr 2009 07:41:36 -0700
Subject: [dhakamails] Solving the Energy Crisis

Solving the Energy Crisis   Salman Rahman and Forrest Cookson     The nation is now trapped in a cruel energy crisis undermining the quality of daily life, disturbing factory production, making examination studies more difficult, reducing the volume of water available in Dhaka and threatening economic development.  These are serious consequences.  It is not our intention here to blame anyone for actions taken or not taken.  What has happened has happened..  However, it is clear to everyone that a strong, action oriented program is needed to overcome the crisis.  We have set forth here just such a program.  The ideas in this article have been discussed in various forums by many experts.  What we offer here is to bring all the threads together into a coherent package.  The program outlined can readily be executed with dramatic improvement in the availability of electricity.    It is essential to keep focused on the key actions.  There is too much wandering around looking for magic solutions.  There are none.  Programs that come to fruition in ten year or more are of little help in the immediate crisis that has enveloped the nation, a crisis that could last for a decade if determined actions are not taken.  We have become very skeptical about what can be expected as there is a long history of false claims and broken promises from the Government organizations responsible for providing gas and electricity to the nation.    Our approach is very simple.  For the next four years the only fuel available for generating electricity is gas.  Diesel can be imported for critical generating requirements or for standby; power and solar power can provide some power for some buildings but it is only natural gas that will provide the large amount of additional electricity.  To provide this natural gas a series of actions are necessary:    SIX CRITICAL STEPS – COMPLETE IN THREE MONTHS   Close down all the government owned urea plants and divert the gas released to power and industrial use.  This must be done promptly, but systematically, simultaneously increasing urea imports.  The Government has under consideration closure of the Chittagong urea plant on a temporary basis.  We are arguing for shutting down all urea plants for several years to provide gas to fuel a major increase in power.  KAFCO will probably have to remain open but the financing of the plant may be reviewed and refinancing at lower interest rates and for a longer time period sought.  If it is impossible to close KAFCO at least one should try to get the best possible price for the urea, linking the selling price to the costs of production, not the international price.  Closing the urea plants is the only immediate source of additional gas.  Without this extra gas additional electricity cannot be produced.   Sign long term agreements to import urea.  Now is the time to do so as international price of urea is low.   The improvement of the gas pipelines and installation of compressors to pressure increase pipeline should be implemented immediately without concern for whether the ADB portion of the project finances enough of the total cost.  Raising the pressure in the gas pipelines is essential.  The PM noted the urgency of this when the project was approved but the completion of the contract is still being worked on.  Government should be prepared to finance itself the additional amounts required.   Many industries require gas for heating purposes and with the current low line pressures plants face much more difficulty, reducing production and increasing unit costs.   The Government should contract for several large barge mounted power plants as was done in the previous AL government; however, these should be short term contracts for only a few years.  These barge units will use much of the gas released from the urea plants.  These barge mounted plants should be able to supply 600 MWs additional capacity by the end of the year.   We believe that aggressive management of the power generation will enable the Government to have an additional 1000 MWs producing electricity by the end of the year using existing generating capacity and rented barge mounted plants.    This will ease the power crisis and provide breathing room for a few years while other fuel sources are developed and the required power plants constructed.   Instruct Bangladesh Bank to begin to buy additional foreign exchange at the rate of $25 million per week to finance the import of fertilizer. We expect that the total bill for urea might come to one billion dollars per year.   Water in Dhaka:  The supply of water in Dhaka is significantly reduced as a consequence of power outages and the failure of WASA to provide back-up diesel driven generators.  Low water changes, corruption, falling water table, neglect of maintenance for the distribution system have combined to make the water supply system very vulnerable to disruption.  There are grand projects to fix these infrastructure problems but action is needed at once to ease the shortages.  The Financial Express quotes a WASA official that about Taka 600 million is needed for stand by diesel generators..  This is less than US $10 million; the Government should procure these at once and of necessary airfreight them.  In the interim WASA should rent or borrow generators from anyone that will spare them.   FOUR CONTRACTUAL ACTIONS:  There are four complex contractual actions to be achieved.  These are all rather urgent and should be completed in six months.  This is a very demanding task but completion of these tasks is essential to insure the expansion of gas, electricity and urea after the next four years.   Contract for one or two large [about 500MW each] gas fired plants. Once these plants come on line the barges rented on a temporary basis would be sent away.  Diverting the gas from the urea factories and improving the capacity of the pipelines will enable gas to be delivered in amounts that will support the private sector and enable the national grid to deliver much more electricity.   Contract for new urea plants that are more efficient users of gas.  As coal fired power plants come on line in five years the gas can be sold to the urea factories enabling imports of urea to be curtailed.   By that time inefficient gas fired power plants can be decommissioned, and there will sufficient gas for the renewed urea production.   Contract for open pit mines at Barapukaria and Phulbari and associated coal fired power plants.   These contracts would target to production of 12 and 15 million metric tons of coal per year displacing coal imports [currently about 5 million mt] and providing ultimately 18 million mt to the power plants [enough for 6000 MWs] and exporting high value coking coal.  Contract for three coal fired power plants each for 1000 MWs planned to come on line in about four to five years.  When these plants are available gas is switched to new efficient urea plants and peaking plants for the power sector and for direct industrial use.   Accelerate the exploration for gas.  Conserve electricity and natural gas by raising the price of both to households and by installing meters on gas connection as rapidly as possible. Price hike of electricity and natural gas may seem to be an unpopular move in the short term but in the long run these steps will prove to be good for the country.   SEVEN PROGRAMS TO IMPROVE THE ENERGY AVAILABIOLITY:  These programs are complex and require major efforts; these are important complements to the major actions covered in points 1-10.   Conserve electricity and natural gas by raising the price of both to households and by installing meters on gas connection as rapidly as possible.  In addition, existing industrial meters should be checked and monitored to reduce corruption.  Further, the government should promote LPG as a residential cooking fuel by raising the price of natural gas and insuring the build up of the availability of LPG.  There have been numerous proposals to improve energy conservation including use of energy saving bulbs; these should be implemented.  Conservation will pay off but all of this takes time, and will not ease the crisis but by starting now in a major way after three or four years we should see a significant impact lower as demand.   The price of electricity and gas must be raised to insure that production costs including a reasonable return to capital are fully covered.  This is essential to encourage conservation.  Most actions taken recently encourage use not promote conservation.  But it is also essential that the taxation of the sector should not be excessive.    Improve the electricity distribution systems in Dhaka.  More than 10% of the electricity generated is lost in the transmission and distribution system.  Fixing this is a major undertaking but much can be done in the next two years to reduce heat loss in sub-stations.  A systematic program is needed to clean up the network of cables, wires, transformers, and illegal connections.  Much progress has been made; it must be accelerated.   The progress made during the Caretaker Government to reduce system losses in gas and electricity must be continued by aggressive administrative and police action. We have learned how much corruption existed in the Government's energy enterprises.  Efforts to stop this corruption and improve the performance of the distribution companies must be implemented.   Government policy should focus on regulation and sound policies.  The history of the Republic has demonstrated that the Government's operational involvement in the sector is wasteful, inefficient and corrupt.   While privatization may be premature, a policy of no new public power plants is urgently needed.  It is hard to understand why an approach to the power sector that has failed should continue to be supported and encouraged.   A major manpower development is urgently needed for the sector.   Renewable energy:  Renewable energy investments will ease demand for electricity.  Efforts to use solar power on tall buildings and factories should be promoted with low cost loans while insuring duties and taxes on solar equipment are kept at zero.  These efforts should include retrofitting buildings if owners find this economic.   Nuclear power for electricity:  Exploration of nuclear energy should go forward.  This is long complex process but it is essential to begin.  It will not impact the next decade but thereafter this could become an important source of energy.  There are also available nuclear batteries – self contained generating units that provide 25-50 MWs.  These are expensive but could be used in some instances to provide power to key Government operations.   This program would transform the energy sector in Bangladesh.  It would provide the basis for massive increases in manufacturing and job creation; it would provide the electrical power needed for most households and small businesses through the power grid.  The essential points of our program are:   ·        Solve the short run problem---power during the next four years---by directing gas to high priority uses and import urea during this transition period.  Use large barge gas fueled power plants for production of electricity right now.   ·        Carry out a major multi billion dollar investment program:  Start open pit coal mining Expand the power system to use coal for the base load and gas for peaking power.  Rebuild the urea factories to achieve efficient plants.  Build the transmission, distribution systems for gas and electricity that will be needed to complement the production of energy.   Accelerate the exploration for gas.  Mount a major program to develop the manpower needed for this massive energy development program.   ·        Implement the pricing, conservation, and ownership policies that the energy sector so badly needs.   Bangladesh stands before a tremendous economic and social hazard.  Without bold, decisive action the nation will face years and years of power shortages.  The wear and tear on the generation and distribution system may lead to a slow steady reduction in the availability of electricity.  Just staying even will prove difficult.  Without our program these shortages will cumulate making things worse: equipment will burn out, power plants will be over stressed and collapse from inadequate maintenance; we will become used to power outages of 8 hours per day; and there will be little growth of the manufacturing sector.   Never have so many persons been trapped like this.  The ideas we have set out here have been thought about by many persons.  There is no other solution that will produce prompt results with a high probability of success.  Continuation on the present path will lead to national disaster.

 

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