| Strategic importance of Bangladesh By Shah Mohammed Saifuddin Despite her small size, Bangladesh does have certain geographical advantages that make her important to regional and extra regional powers which may drag her into a complex strategic scenario created due to rivalries between big powers. Bangladesh may be seen as a key player in strategic game plans of India, Pakistan, the U.S.A. and China because of the following reasons:(The New nation) The unique geographic location of Bangladesh which cuts the troubled North East region of India off from mainland constitutes a significant security weak point for India for the fact that the region shares border with China and that various insurgent groups are active within the region who are fighting against the Indian government for self determination. In light of their experience in Indo-China war in 1962, the Indian defense planners consider the strategic chicken neck to be inadequate and see Bangladesh to be the safest and the shortest route to transport military logistics to North East region in case of a military conflict between India and China in the future. A strategic corridor through Bangladesh is also seen as important to conduct sustained military campaign against the insurgent groups in North East. The corridor through Bangladesh has economic significance as well because it is the most cost effective route to connect North East with the rest of India for the transshipment of industrial goods to and from North Eastern states, which is vital to improve the economic condition of this land locked region. Bangladesh, which is seen as a bridge between SAARC and ASEAN, also has enormous geographic advantages for its proximity to Myanmar and other South East Asian nations to promote interregional economic, political and security cooperation. Once connected via Asian Highway and Trans-Asian Railway, the South and South East Asian nations will be using Bangladesh as the main transit point to increase economic interactions amongst themselves. Bangladesh with appropriate policies and infrastructures in place will be playing pivotal role in defining the direction of economic relations between the two emerging regional groups. Bangladesh is considered the gateway to Bay of Bengal with its 45000 sq. miles of sea territory in which lies valuable marine resources such as hydrocarbon, fisheries etc. Its well developed sea ports offer both economic and military opportunities because India can use the port facilities to increase trade with its land locked North East region while other South and South East Asian countries and China can use the same facilities to increase interregional economic interactions. With the ambition to protect the oil transshipment and trade routes in the Indian Ocean, the Chinese navy is making rapid progress in developing relations with the coastal nations such as Myanmar and Bangladesh to gain access to their port facilities so as to conduct sustained naval operations in the sea. In light of recently concluded Indo-U.S. Strategic agreement, it can be assumed that the U.S.A might also seek similar facilities from Bangladesh as a response to Chinese naval presence in the Bay of Bengal. Because of her burgeoning population, high economic growth, and rapid industrialization, India has become the sixth largest energy consumer in the world, but she has to import oil to meet 70% of her domestic demand which cost 40% of her total export earnings. She has to diversify import sources for uninterrupted supply of energy, but due to international politics importing hydrocarbon from Iran and Venezuela has become uncertain leaving Bangladesh and Myanmar as only cheap and secure sources of energy supply. While Bangladesh has a speculative gas reserve of 33 TCF, its proven reserve is only 12 -15 TCF which is inadequate to meet its own domestic demand so the government has already decided against exporting gas to other countries unless new reserves are found. Even though Bangladesh has expressed her inability to export gas at the moment, India considers Bangladesh a major source of energy in the long run because of its potentials to discover huge hydrocarbon reserves in the Bay of Bengal. Bangladesh also is the most cost effective route for India to import gas from Myanmar, therefore, Bangladesh may emerge as a significant player in regional strategic energy game. Bangladesh is significant because of the complex strategic scenario that has emerged due to India's strategic alliance with the U.S.A to contain China and its rivalry with Pakistan for regional supremacy. India has to take cognizance of the fact that Bangladesh has established deep military relations with China and repaired her relations with Pakistan to correct the problem in balance of power in her relation with India. So, the possible military role of Bangladesh in case of a war either between India and China or between India and Pakistan could be a strategic concern for India. In light of Bangladesh's endeavor to take control of her own affairs and her attempt to seek greater independence in foreign policy matters, India formulated a set of strategies to isolate, intimidate, and coerce Bangladesh to submit to Indian domination to reap the strategic benefits of break up of Pakistan.. The following strategies have been put into action by Indian foreign and defense services to create pressure on Bangladesh: 1. Delaying tactics to solve bilateral problems: Having shared land and maritime borders, both Bangladesh and India should have demarcated their borders based on mutual cooperation, trust, and interest for peaceful co-existence, but regrettably, despite a series of diplomatic efforts by Bangladesh, India refused to respond adequately so as to resolve border disputes in an amicable fashion and employed a delaying tactics to create pressure on Bangladesh. Bangladesh, on the other hand, showing political maturity and the spirit of amicable co-existence has already ratified the border agreement signed between the two governments in 1974 and also made several diplomatic moves to demarcate maritime border only to be frustrated by lukewarm Indian response. Non ratification of the border agreement by India and its reluctance to find solution to maritime border dispute has caused a gradual deterioration in bilateral relations giving birth to mutual suspicion and mistrust. The aggressive posture of its border security forces along 4096 km. Indo-Bangla border and the deployment of its navy near a disputed Island in the Bay of Bengal named South Talpatti in the 80s are signals that in case Bangladesh fails to accommodate Indian interests causing further deterioration in bilateral relations, India will not hesitate to use military power against Bangladesh. 3. Policy of supporting secessionist movements in Bangladesh: Chittagong Hill Tracts, which is one tenth of the total size of the country, with its enormous natural resources and strategic geographic location is vital for the existence of Bangladesh. Taking advantage of geographic proximity to its Tripura state and the desire of the local Chakma tribes for greater autonomy with an ultimate goal of creating Jumma land-an independent state for Chakmas--- India used its military and intelligence resources to provide help and support to Shanti Bahini. The surreptitious Indian involvement in providing money and weapons to tribal insurgents in the Chittagong Hill Tracks since 1976 was acknowledged by Bimal Chakma-a Shanti Bahini official-- in an interview with 'The New York Times' in June 11, 1989. India used the insurgents against Bangladesh as a tool to gain political, and economic concessions which she would not othrwise be able to extract from the government of Bangladesh. Finally, Bangladesh entered into a peace agreement with Shanti Bahini in 1997 to end insurgency and restore law and order in Chittagong Hill Tracks, but the security and intelligence agencies of the country are still convinced that a lot of ex-Shanti Bahini members and other terrorists are still getting help from Indian security agencies and are hiding in the North East states of India. Because of India's step motherly attitude towards its landlocked North Eastern states, a growing sense of deprivation, exploitation and insecurity is prevalent among the people of this region, which has contributed to give birth to a number of insurgent groups who have taken up arms against their own government for self-determination. India's myopic decision to crush insurgency through military means without finding the root causes to better understand the problem and the absence of a mature policy of providing economic and social incentives to remove inequalities have created myriad of problems causing further alienation of indigenous people. India in an attempt to portray itself as a victim of terrorism is now trying to find a scapegoat in Bangladesh to blame for the insurgency to conceal its failure to contain insurgencies in the North East and disprove its own involvement in secessionist movement in Chittagong Hill Tracks. Notwithstanding its small landmass, Bangladesh, in terms of population, is the eighth largest country in the world and a home for 130 million Muslims. She has been playing a major role in international peace efforts and war against terrorism through contributing the second highest troops to U.N missions and introducing tough anti terrorism ordinance with a provision of death sentence for those convicted of terrorism. The then U.S. Under Secretary of State Nicholas Burns termed Bangladesh as a unique example of democracy in South Asia region, and as a model for democracy and tolerance by Harry K Thomas-ex U.S. Ambassador to Bangladesh. Disregarding the support and appreciation of International community for Bangladesh's role in the war against terrorism, Indian media keeps inventing fictitious stories about Bangladesh's alleged inability to respond to the security needs of India, in particular, and the world, in general to create pressure on the government of Bangladesh. But the fact of the matter is, Bangladesh takes regional and global security matters seriously and working closely with the international community to stop its soil from being used by elements inimical to regional and global security. It can be mentioned that the international community including the United States has welcomed Bangladesh's dismantling of the terror network of Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) and the execution of its top leaders after following due process of law and termed Bangladesh as a valuable partner in war against terror. In bilateral trade relations with its neighbors, India follows a policy of deriving maximum benefits by securing duty free access for its commodities and cornering other smaller regional countries by not allowing them similar privileges and imposing non tariff barriers on their exports. Bangladesh is a victim of the same exploitative Indian trade strategy and suffers from a trade deficit to the amount of $2 billion with India which can be attributed to non removal of tariff and non tariff barriers on its exports. To offset the negative impact of this yawning trade gap, so far no significant amount of investments and loans were made available to Bangladesh by India. The Indian strategy of bilateral ism and non implementation of water sharing treaties has caused enormous difficulties to its lower riparian neighbors because India uses prevailing asymmetry of power to its own advantage to deprive its neighbors of their due share of water. This has caused enormous ecological damage to riverine Bangladesh as supply of water during dry season has dwindled at an alarming rate. With 20 times larger landmass, 10 times larger population, and 10 times larger military, India is placed in an advantageous position to negotiate with Bangladesh from a position of strength to define the bilateral relation that suits its own political, strategic, and economic interests. Being the weaker party, Bangladesh has to be creative in devising strategies to utilize India's geographic and security vulnerabilities to its advantage by using geographical advantages, forming alliances with strong friendly nations and being part of powerful international security forums to reduce its own strategic vulnerabilities that arise from asymmetry in power vis a vis India and protect its strategic, political and economic interests. The government of Bangladesh will define the responsibilities of different agencies to design, implement, and enforce strategies to deal with existing power inequalities with India, and they will also establish policies to review the current strategies to evaluate their strengths and weaknesses to ensure effectiveness to respond to current risks and to adjust to future risks. No single strategy is enough to deal with a country as big and powerful as India, so Bangladesh has to employ several different strategies to diminish India's strategic advantages over Bangladesh through identifying India's security weak points and using them as Bangladesh's own strategic assets, and through internationalizing bilateral issues to seek help from powerful friends and international forums so as to force India to resolve any disputes on the basis of justice, equality and mutual respect. In light of the above discussion, Bangladesh may employ following strategies to protect its national interest vis a vis India: To use bilateral diplomatic channels to resolve disputes in an amicable manner, and if that fails then use regional forums to raise the issues and involve other regional actors in the dispute resolution processes, and if still that doesn't work then use the United Nations to take diplomatic actions to prevent disputes from escalating into conflicts. International security forums: To make exhaustive efforts to raise bilateral security issues with India in ASEAN Regional Forum in an attempt to engage all the members of the forum in constructive security dialogues to resolve disputes through confidence building or preventive diplomacy. Strategic alliance: To form strategic alliance with China to obtain security guarantee in the event of a military conflict with India, and to obtain political guarantee that China will use her veto power to thwart Indian attempt to use the United Nations Security Council to legalize its actions with respect to disputes with Bangladesh. Bangladesh will also work with China on matters that affect Chinese security interests based on mutual cooperation, interest, and utmost respect for each others sovereignty. Strategic chicken neck: To consider the 'chicken neck' as strategic asset and take political decision based on national consensus to not allow India to get transit rights on a bilateral basis through Bangladesh to transport goods, military or industrial, to its North East region. This will give Bangladesh a clear strategic advantage over India because the latter will be forced to rely on Bangladesh for the stability and economic development of its North East region. Military strength: To gain substantial military power to tie the entire Eastern Command of India in a long term war to cause erosion in its ability to fight a simultaneous war against Bangladesh, and China or the insurgents in North East region, and give Pakistan an opportunity to escalate the dispute over Kashmir into a major conflict on the Western side. Despite a few irritants in their bilateral relations, Bangladesh and India, being so close neighbors and part of so many regional and international forums, should try to take solid actions to minimize differences to foster understanding and cooperation in various socio-economic and security issues for amicable co-existence and regional stability. The following set of actions are recommended to achieve a peaceful bilateral relation: To promote regional cooperation to harness water resources for the benefit of agriculture and electricity production To provide duty free access for each others commodities to promote greater economic cooperation To take prompt diplomatic actions to demarcate land and maritime borders in the spirit of justice, equity and good neighborliness To work closely to combat sea piracy, illegal arms trade, drug trafficking, and human trafficking for the sake of regional security and stability To create culture of non-interference in each others internal affairs to promote trust, confidence, and cooperation |
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