US embassy cables: Indian officials tell US neither Sri Lanka
government nor Tamil Tigers respect international community
guardian.co.uk, Thursday 16 December 2010
Friday, 27 April 2007
C O N F I D E N T I A L
SUBJECT: INDIAN OFFICIAL SEES BANGLADESH AT CROSSROADS, SRI
LANKA DETERIORATING, BURMA RELATIONS BECOMING UNIDIMENSIONAL
Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)
Summary
Indian officials warn US counterparts the situation in Sri lanka is
"beyond bleak" and that neither the government nor Tamil separatists
fighting in the island nation's north have any "regard" for the
international community ... and request a briefing on China's aid to
Colombo. Key passage highlighted in yellow
1. (C) Summary. In a meeting with PolCouns on April 26, MEA Joint
Secretary Mohan Kumar:
-- said that the caretaker government in Bangladesh has reached a
crossroads by allowing Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia to return,
stating such a move weakens the government and will force it to
reassert itself in some way; -- suggested the U.S., UK and India agree
on a core message to give the Bangladeshi caretaker government, one
that supports the government while it remains on a path toward
credible elections but clarifies that the military needs to remain out
of politics; -- provided his assessment that Chief Advisor Fakhruddin
is not in control of the government, but rather the executor for a
military which looms in the background; -- praised the progress which
has been made between the Indian Border Security Forces and the
Bangladeshi Rifles; -- asked for U.S. assistance in getting Bangladesh
to open its economy; -- stated Indian influence in Burma is waning,
suggesting that U.S. pressure to bring Burma before the UN Security
Council was
counterproductive; -- denied reports that India had provided Rangoon
with T-55 tanks; -- offered to verify whether India will fulfill a
request by a Burmese general to provide infantry weapons and
ammunition; -- confirmed that the Indian Navy is stepping up patrols
in the waters between India and Sri Lanka; and -- expressed concern
over China's participation in the port project in Hambantota, Sri
Lanka.
End Summary.
Bangladesh At a Crossroads
--------------------------
2. (C) PolCouns met April 26 with Ministry of External Affairs (MEA)
Joint Secretary (Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Myanmar) Mohan
Kumar to discuss India's assessment of recent events in the region.
Also initially in attendance was British High Commission PolCouns Alex
Hall-Hall, who had coincidentally been discussing Bangladesh with
Kumar when PolCouns walked in. Kumar and Hall-Hall described their
conversation, agreeing that the recent decision by the caretaker
government (CTG) in Bangladesh to allow Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia
to return had put that country at a crossroads. The government had
gone back on its strategy to remove the two women from the political
scene, they assessed, would be weakened, and the question now was
whether the government will reassert itself by pushing the election
schedule forward, or by digging in its heels and seeking to remain in
power longer. Kumar presented a third option, that either the military
or one of the
women would stir up civil unrest, which could then be used as a
pretext by the military to step in and take political control,
although he admitted he did not believe a military coup was likely.
Kumar suggested that now would be an opportune moment for the U.S., UK
and India to agree on a core message to take to the caretaker
government, pressing for elections and voter list reforms, providing
support for the government as long as it sticks to a schedule for
elections, and making clear that the military needs to remain out of
politics. Hall-Hall noted that any coordination needed to remain
invisible to the Bangladeshi public in order to avoid the perception
of some sort of conspiracy.
3. (C) Kumar said India is concerned with the time frame for
Bangladeshi elections, given -- in his analysis -- that the government
has been weakened. He believed the interim government would benefit by
moving up elections to the first quarter of 2008. He noted that he had
been the notetaker for the April 4 meeting between Prime Minister
Singh and Chief Advisor Fakhruddin, and his impression was that
Fakhruddin "was not a free agent." Fakhruddin made no commitments and
could not clearly explain the government's strategy, leading Kumar to
believe Fakhruddin was merely the executor of the military's political
control.
4. (C) Kumar stated that good progress had been made in talks between
India's Border Security Forces and the Bangladesh Rifles. The five-day
February meeting between high-level officials was "fantastic," he
said, adding that guards on both sides of the border have cooperated
better since the meeting. (Note: Kumar's comments echo what Bangladesh
Embassy Political Minister Mashfee Binte Shams told Poloff earlier in
the week, that the BSF and BDR have relieved border tensions and
improved communications. End Note.)
5. (C) The U.S. and UK could help India by pressing Bangladesh to open
its economy and trade, Kumar suggested. Companies such as Tata, which
have made efforts to enter the Bangladeshi manufacturing market, are
reporting to Kumar that the CTG is impeding its entry into Bangladesh.
Kumar said he has met with representatives of the Asian Development
Bank, who have been positive regarding the potential for
infrastructure projects in the region, but in terms of assisting with
India-Bangladesh trade have only suggested some smaller connectivity
projects.
6. (C) PolCouns referred to press accounts of the recent visit to New
Delhi by Burmese Quartermaster General Lt. Gen Thiha Thura Tin Aung
Myint Oo, which reported that Lt. Gen Tin had come requesting infantry
weapons and ammunition in return for the junta's help in flushing out
insurgents based along the border. Kumar said he was unaware of any
promises India made to provide such materiel, but would check on the
report's veracity. He stated India is losing influence -- and gas
deals -- in Burma to China, and suggested that American pressure on
India to press the junta on democracy and human rights was
counterproductive. The more the U.S. presses India to bring Burma
before the UN Security Council, he said, the more the Burmese tell
India to "go to hell." PolCouns strongly countered, pointing out the
junta's horrible record on human rights and democracy dating back
years, and stressed to Kumar that any assistance to the Burmese regime
by India would be poorly received by Washington.
7. (C) India-Burma relations have deteriorated to being
unidimensional, Kumar said, with the only cooperation being on the
anti-insurgency campaign along the border. India is not getting any
gas contracts from Burma ("We're getting screwed on gas" were Kumar's
exact words, reflective of his candid nature), nor is it getting the
transit rights it seeks which would open a bridge to East Asia.
Burmese officials have told Kumar that they "hate" the Chinese and
would prefer not to cooperate with China, but do so because they feel
Beijing is more reliable than New Delhi. He claimed a recent report
that India was planning to provide Burma with T-55 tanks was untrue.
8. (C) The situation in Sri Lanka is "bad, really bad - beyond bleak"
in Kumar's judgment. Characterizing the government and the LTTE as two
sets of people with scant regard for the international community,
Kumar was skeptical that political progress could be achieved anytime
soon. He confirmed reports that the Indian Navy has stepped up patrols
in the Palk Strait, and said that India and Sri Lanka are doing
coordinated patrolling to prevent the smuggling of weapons from the
Tamil Nadu coast. Kumar said it would be helpful to get the American
assessment of the port being built in Hambantota, which he estimated
China was willing to spend $500 million to help develop. He noted that
China has increased its influence with President Rajapaksa, opining
that Rajapaksa had a "soft spot" for China following his visit to
Beijing in March.
9. (SBU) Bio note. Kumar confirmed he has been selected to become the
Deputy Chief of Mission at the Indian Embassy in Paris, likely to
assume the position in August.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/us-embassy-cables-documents/106051
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