[ALOCHONA] Emergency may jeopardize credibility of parliamentary polls: EIU

Emergency may jeopardize credibility of parliamentary polls: EIU         London-based Economic Intelli-gence Unit (EIU) has said the caretaker government and the Election Commission need to overcome a number of obstacles in the weeks ahead to ensure that the forthcoming parliamentary polls are free, fair and credible.The EIU in its October report said barring a deterioration in the security situation, the caretaker government is expected to hand over power to a new government shortly after the parliamentary election on December 18.It said the election would be regarded as free if members of all political parties in Bangladesh were able to participate. The report said the recent decision by the caretaker government to grant bail to a number of important politicians, arrested as a result of its anti-corruption drive, has helped fulfill its promise of a free poll. More importantly, it said the leaders of the two largest political parties, Khaleda Zia of BNP and Sheikh Hasina of Awami League, who are both under investigation for corruption, are now in a position to participate. Both have been granted bail, and as neither has yet been prosecuted, they could conceivably contest their seats and "one of them could become the next Prime Minister."It said Begum Zia and Sheikh Hasina remain hugely popular figures, but the success of the AL at the elections for city corporations and municipalities in August means that it is in a favourable position to win. It said the election would be deemed to be fair if voters were allowed to exercise their democratic rights. There remains uncertainty, however, over whether this condition can be met. The report said severe restrictions have been placed on civil liberties since emergency rule was imposed on January 11, 2007. It said concerns over a possible deterioration in the security situation in the run-up to the parliamentary poll are likely to prevent a complete lifting of emergency rule, although the government may relax certain restrictions ahead of and during the election. Political parties will continue to make the full lifting of the state of emergency a primary condition of their participation in the forthcoming polls. The EIU said maintaining emergency rule may jeopardise the credibility of the poll, especially if the European Commission decides not to send a delegation to observe the vote. The integrity of the poll could be undermined further if the main political parties decide not to participate, but given the conciliatory stance adopted by the Election Commission in recent weeks and its ongoing efforts to engage the parties in dialogue, this seems unlikely. The report said the BNP and the AL are already considering plans to attract smaller political parties to their camps in an attempt to increase their chances of winning the election. Given the short time left before the poll, the report said the Election Commission may offer further compromises to ensure that the election goes ahead as planned. To this end, the EC may drop its demand for internal reforms in the main political parties. It said elections to local councils are planned to take place in two phases, on December 24 and 28, but given the protests lodged by the main parties, these may be delayed until early 2009. The EIU said despite the efforts of the caretaker government to implement a range of reforms, the political scene will continue to be dominated by the two main parties and their respective leaders.   http://www.thebangladeshtoday.com/leading%20news.htm

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