[mukto-mona] Pakistan: Crisis after crisis

SAN-Feature Service SOUTH ASIAN NEWS-FEATURE SERVICE December 9,2008   Pakistan: Crisis after crisis Rasul Bakhsh Rais    The biggest challenge of all, which cannot be addressed without setting aside our political differences comes from non-state actors — militants and private groups of various shapes and sizes — that are putting our national security and stability at risk   SAN-Feature Service:Pakistan seems to be in the grip of an unending series of crises. The magnitude and frequency of political, economic and security problems have been rising over the last two years, and have greatly weakened the Pakistani state and its institutions. Even the departure of Pervez Musharraf and his widely discredited regime has not helped matters. The elected political leadership too has failed to resolve the many crises. True, they have only been in office for a few months, but they could at least take some measures to improve the situation.   They could start with evolving a broader policy consensus on the fundamental problems — insurgency, the war on terror, relations with India, the judiciary and the 17th Amendment. That would have provided a solid foundation for the further consolidation of democracy and the resultant political cohesion could help address other troubling structural issues.   But the old-fashioned politics of intrigue continues. The national interest has been put on the backburner and the government appears too weak to act decisively on domestic and foreign policy matters.   Even without a broad consensus, the government could have taken some steps, through specific task forces for every issue, to address the problems left unresolved by the Musharraf regime. However, we have only seen a worsening of the situation, especially in the face of rising extremism, both ethnic and religious.   The problems we are facing on the regional front, with Afghanistan and now with India after the Mumbai terror attacks, have roots in our society. The evidence that India and the international media have produced about the attacks and their origins allegedly involves Pakistanis. It is true that neither the government of Pakistan nor the society at large had anything to do with the attacks or the attackers' ideology. Yet, that does not solve the problem. Acts like these can push Pakistan and India to the brink of war and at the very least can disrupt the process of peace and reconciliation that was started in 2004.   This is where the terrorists and their handlers have succeeded. They have brought Pakistan and India close to a major conflict. We can only hope that the major players in the international community and saner elements in Pakistan and India can defuse the deteriorating situation.   The Mumbai attacks present a serious domestic and foreign policy challenge for the Zardari government, and could not have come at a worse time. As noted, Pakistan is already facing several serious internal crises and its resources are spread very thin on numerous fronts. India is hurting, and justifiably so, but the warmongering in its media and by political demagogues may create a difficult situation for Pakistan. That could plunge the entre region in a crisis.   Given its many difficulties, how well has the government dealt with the post-Mumbai situation, and what are the options available to avert a major external crisis?   It certainly did the right thing by convening an all-party conference on national security. This APC was an unprecedented show of national solidarity, when, on short notice, the heads of all political parties assembled and assured full support to the government on national security. While it is normal for leaders to close their ranks and stand together despite differences in the face of an external threat, given the polarisation in Pakistan on nearly all issues, this was a major achievement.   But this is only a starting point in building national cohesion should India become more confrontational (which it is likely to). However, that is a worst-case scenario that we should do everything in our power to avoid.   An early convening of special session of parliament, with a national debate on the issue, should be the next logical step. Ideally, the security think tanks generously funded by the state should provide a forum for such a debate, exploring different options for the government.   Unfortunately, these institutions are headed by incompetent individuals who lack the intellectual and policy capacity for this task. We cannot turn to these security think tanks for any policy guidance on the challenges we are facing today. But as an alternative, the government must convene a national security dialogue of experts chosen on the basis of merit.   Then there is the biggest challenge of all, which cannot be addressed without setting aside our political differences: the non-state actors — militants and private groups of various shapes and sizes — that are putting our national security and stability at risk.   Neutralising them will not be easy, but should we fail to do so, we will end up further weakened and isolated in the world. Further, if we do not deal with this, we run the greater risk of terrible conflict with our neighbours, who will have the sympathy of the international community.--SAN-Feature Service   Dr Rasul Bakhsh Rais is author of Recovering the Frontier State: War, Ethnicity and State in Afghanistan  and a professor of Political Science at the Lahore University of Management Sciences. He can be reached at rasul@lums.edu.pk

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