AS THE 36-hour long bloody rebellion by a number of Bangladesh Rifles jawans (soldiers), who happen to be known as the 'ever-vigilant sentinels of the border', at the BDR headquarters in the capital Dhaka drew to a close, it had taken the lives of 56 officers, with seven missing and a number of bystander casualties. The BDR jawans, who are entrusted with the duty to protect the border, staged the rebellion on February 25, the second day of the annual BDR Week, which was inaugurated by the prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, on the day before. More than one thousand soldiers mutinied, took over the BDR headquarters, sprayed bullets on the 'durbar' (an annual meeting of the force) to kill senior officers, who are on deputation from the Bangladesh Army, and held the officers' families hostage. By the second day, the 'rebellion' had spread to 12 other towns and cities across the country. Although it came to an end on February 26, after the government had warned of using military force, it cost the lives of innocent military officers, including the BDR director general, Major General Shakil Ahmed, put the families of the victims in grief and left the country in disarray.
The Bangladesh Rifles with a 213-year history is one of the oldest of its kind in the entire region. BDR jawans play a very significant role in defending the 4,427-kilometre border. They are also responsible to curb cross-border smuggling and to assume the role of first line of defence in the event of a war.. The rebellion that broke out on February 25 destroyed the fabric and core of the institution. As the whole episode is increasingly getting public, one may conclude that the entire episode was pre-planned to eliminate the command structure of the BDR and destabilise the security environment of the country. The rebellion has several strategic and security implications for Bangladesh and, to some extent, the region.
Organisational collapse
THE Bangladesh Rifles is a major actor within the state security architecture with 67,000 soldiers stationed across the country. The rebellion, in the fashion of decapitation, has resulted into the elimination of the top-ranked officers of the paramilitary force. It is a major blow to the security structure of the state. It leaves a dent in a major security apparatus, which contributes immensely to the country's security. Since it suffered a collapse, which would require a while to repair, it may have also compromised the trans-boundary security of Bangladesh and its neighbours.
Unguarded border
THE rebellion may usher serious security consequences for Bangladesh. The primary duties of the Bangladesh Rifles are to protect the border, to carry out routine patrol along the fringe and to conduct anti-smuggling operations. In the aftermath of the rebellion, it can be assumed that the core objectives of the BDR will be hampered from being achieved, since a significant number of top BDR officers are dead and a complete vacuum in the command and control structure within the BDR reigns. Without proper direction from above, the border guards will not be able to carry out their duties properly.. While efforts have already been made for the resumption of border patrol, it will be difficult, at least for the time being, to ensure prevention of inbound and/or outbound infiltration through Bangladesh border. Therefore, to bring the BDR 'back on track' and to make it fully functional again, extensive political engagement, support of military, additional resources and, on top of everything, time would be required.
Trans-national security threats
GIVEN the porous nature of the border between India and Bangladesh, unguarded border has grave security consequences for the region as well. Militant/Islamist terrorists or armed ethnic groups will eventually try to exploit this situation for trans-boundary movements. Apart from this, the following trans-national security threats may also constitute difficulties in the aftermath of the crumbling of the BDR following the bloody rebellion: smuggling of illegal goods and narcotics, human trafficking and trans-border movements of criminal gangs.
It is noteworthy that each year illicit goods worth $2 billion enter Bangladesh from the neighbouring country. Due to its geographical location and strategic importance, Bangladesh is considered a transit route for smuggling narcotics and small arms across South Asia. Therefore, an unguarded border has serious consequences not only for Bangladesh but also for the entire region.
Weapons looted
AS THE mutiny was drawing to an end, the 'rebel' jawans escaped the BDR compound and took away a huge load of explosives (mainly hand grenades), ammunitions and weapons. Once the BDR jawans ran away, local criminal groups went inside the compound to steal weapons and explosives left behind by the absconding BDR jawans. It is feared that if the weapons and explosive end up in the hands of local criminals or, to make it even worse, end up with militant terror groups, it will create severe security threat for the country in the days to come. It also has serious security concerns for the region. There is an increased probability that the looted weapons might be smuggled out of the country to neighbouring states and end up in the hands of terrorists/insurgents there. Law enforcement agencies have already initiated operations to recover the looted weapons. But analysts suggest that the recovered arsenal is only the 'tip of an iceberg'.. ANM Muniruzzaman, a retired major general of the Bangladesh Army and president of the Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies, while speaking to international media, said, 'A large number of BDR soldiers have fled with arms and ammunition from their headquarters while many left their workstations keeping the country's border areas almost unprotected.'
Intelligence failure
THE rebellion has left serious impact on the morale of the law enforcement agencies. The intelligence agencies are facing stern criticism. They were just caught off guard. Many security specialists feel the incident is the result of blanket intelligence failure. Any 'rebellion' of this magnitude cannot be a spontaneous act. It was well-orchestrated and well-coordinated. They circulated leaflets night before the rebellion. It requires months of planning, communication and coordination to get it off the ground. The entire episode of this blanket intelligence failure makes us vulnerable and recurrence of such incidents in future would be catastrophic. Hence, relevant agencies must take immediate measures for intelligence agencies' capacity building and coordination.
Counterterrorism capacity
FOLLOWING the rebellion, another setback would be witnessed in the field of counterterrorism. Although the BDR is not overtly involved in the counterterrorism operations, it plays a significant role in deterring trans-national terrorist groups from entering Bangladesh, in hunting them down and in carrying out counterterrorism operations. As the country is currently in a state of disarray, there is an increased chance that the terrorist groups, operating in Bangladesh, may opt to capitalise on the present situation. Security analysts even predict that trans-national terror groups may also try to infiltrate into the country. Colonel Gulzar Hossain, who had until very recently been stationed in the Rapid Action Battalion and had made immense contribution to counterterrorism capacity building of the country, has gone missing since the rebellion began. Gulzar, the immediate-past director of intelligence at the battalion, was a key person in combating Islamist militancy in Bangladesh who apprehended dozens of Islamist militants and their kingpins. Since his body is yet to be found, one cannot rule out the possibility that he may have been captured and taken out of the BDR compound by the mutineers. If so, albeit far-fetched, Bangladesh's counterterrorism architecture is in real danger. In such a scenario, it will also have regional implications.
Fear of internal instability
THE country has not yet recovered fully from the state of panic and confusion induced by the rebellion. Apparently the worst is over; however, an aftershock cannot be ruled out. If the situation is not handled with prudence and efficiency, it may trigger internal instability in the days to come.. Internal instability in a country like Bangladesh, which is geographically and strategically very important, could have negative impact for neighbouring countries.
Safety of classified BDR documents
THE BDR is the first line of defence during peacetime and fights along with the army during wartime.. The BDR, then East Pakistan Rifles, had a glorious role in the liberation war of Bangladesh in 1971. It suffered 817 casualties, and was honoured with two posthumous gallantry awards, 'Bir Srestha', for extraordinary chivalry. Ever since independence, the BDR has been involved in defending the border and has many classified documents. As it has been reported, both in print and electronic media, that the mutineers ransacked the director general's office. If classified BDR documents end up in the wrong hands, it will have serious security implications for the country. Furthermore, as some local newspapers have reported, the information contained in the computer hard disks may also have been compromised. The implications of an information theft of such nature should also be looked into.
'Unseen hands' in the rebellion
THE size and scale of the rebellion and the associated violence indicate that it may have been possibly influenced by factors beyond the BDR. While there has been a lot of speculation in the international media, it is too early to reach any conclusions. However, it would be important to undertake a detailed probe looking into the possible external linkages. If such linkages are found to be true, it proves that the country remains extremely vulnerable and external forces can penetrate deep inside the country, even inside its security apparatus..
Blow to fragile democracy
BANGLADESH is currently going through a phase of democratic political consolidation with a newly elected government in power after two years of military-backed caretaker government and the events of February 25-26 have dealt a major blow to that process. It is therefore critical for the Bangladeshi state to quickly recover and continue with the process of political consolidation. Efforts will also have to be made to mount immediate 'damage control' in the field of civil-military relations.
End words
THE top policy-planners of the country including the prime minister have already termed the rebellion as preordained massacre. They have also stated that the threat is still there. Bangladesh has hardly faced a national security situation of this scale in nearly four decades of its history.. It would therefore be wrong to view the BDR rebellion just as a mere insurrection to put forward certain demands. The incidents that took place at the BDR headquarters in Dhaka on February 25 and 26 have deep-seated implications for the security of Bangladesh and also of the region. Hence, the need of the hour is to get to the root and see how such a tragedy took place. It is also important for the state and the national security apparatus of Bangladesh to take critical lessons in order to ensure that such a monumental tragedy never strikes this country again.
Khaled Iqbal Chowdhury is a research associate at the Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies.
http://www.newagebd.com/2009/mar/07/oped.html