Re: [ALOCHONA] Every new Govt starts with topics "New Power Generation in BD" but never implement it

Coal, not gas, dependable source of energy :Gas reserves exhaust by 2015, Serious energy crisis looming

The country's proven gas reserves of 8.39 TCF are likely to be exhausted by 2011 and the probable reserves of 13.6 TCF by the end of the year 2015, indicating the possible shutdown of 90 percent gas-run-power plants, demonstrating the looming of serious energy crisis if its substitute, coal, as energy is not extracted from the mines or new gas fields are not discovered.( The New Nation )

According to 'Power Sector Master Plan Update 2006' prepared by Nexant, in order to reach GDP to eight percent, 450 million tonnes of coal will be required for 'coal based plants' between 2005 and 2025. The country will be requiring 75 million tonnes of coal in 2025 alone to produce 32,837 megawat of electricity out of total 41,899 mw. . On this ratio, 375 (75X5) million tonnes of coal will be required for next five years from 2026 [and 750 (75XlO) million tonnes for next 10 years from 2026 totalling 1200 (450+750) million tonnes (2005-2035)].

At present, there are proven reserves of 2,221 million tonnes of coal in the country's five coalmines (all in North Bengal). The full particulars are furnished below: -

(In million tonnes)

Locationlfield- Year of Discovery-Drilled Well-Depth-Proven Reserves- Probables

l.Barapukuria 1985-87 31 118-509 meters 303 390

Dinajpur

2.Khalashpur 1989-90 14 257-483 143 685

Rangpur

3.Phulbari 1997 108 150-240 572 572

Dinajpur

4.Dighipara 1994-95 5 328-407 150 600

Dinajpur

5.Jamalganj 1962 10 640-1158 1053 1053

Jpypurhat

Total 2221 3300

(Sources: BCML, AEC, GSB)

As to the extraction of coal, there are two methods. One is the 'open pit method' and the other is 'underground mining method'. The cost of extraction under the former method is 60 dollars per tonne and that under the later is 103 dollars. Under the open pit method, 90 percent extraction is possible while under the underground mining method, 20 percent could be extracted.

The severe drawbacks under the open pit method are that thousands of people living in and outside the mine(s) will be homeless and the environment in and around the locality will be seriously affected. So, to avert agitation and turmoil by the probable displaced inhabitants, prior-rehabilitation of them must be done before the coal company (ies) begins work in the coalmine area(s). If the government does not do that, creation of more Phulbari cannot be ruled out

If the open pit method is applied, about 1050 million tonnes of coal could be extracted from four mines (except Jamalganj) while 235 million under underground mining method, enough to produce electricity till 2022. In truth, the dependence on the coal based power plants and the industries will be in danger if the proven gas reserves are exhausted by 2015 and if no new gas field is discovered. Since 1,200 million tonnes of coal will be required for power plants only, the question of export does not at all arise. Not only that, the government can't give any kind of guarantee of supplying gas to any foreign company desiring to invest (regardless of amount) in Bangladesh.

The country will need 13,408 mw of electricity in 2015, 24,405 in 2020 and 41,899 in 2025 if the GDP reaches 8 percent On the other hand, there will be necessity of 9,786 mw in 2015, 13,993 in 2020 and 19,312 in 2025 in case of GDP entering 5.2 percent, claims Nexant It is therefore imperative on the part of the interim government to draft a clear coal policy right now in order to avert crises and to free the country from the curse of load shedding by 2012.
http://nation.ittefaq.com/issues/2007/10/04/news0533.htm

----- Original Message -----
From: "M. M. Chowdhury \(Mithu\)"
To: cgmpservices@yahoo.com
Subject: [ALOCHONA] Every new Govt starts with topics "New Power Generation in BD" but never implement it
Date: Tue, 31 Mar 2009 12:28:24 -0700 (PDT)

Dear All,   Recently I have analyzed what is happening in Bangladesh power sector which is a life line for Bangladesh future in economical growth  as well as basic human needs.  Every Govt in BD for the last 38 years started with topics that BD needs new power generation and also have put towers many areas, but never worked on increasing the electricity generation.  It's like seeds but not putting in the field.   There could be few reasons:   1) So much money to make in this sector by MPs and Ministers in this sector, is like a gold mine to them.   2) They have lack of knowledge about this sector or lack of expertise.   3) Outside pressure which prevents to make any improvement in this sector.  It may have been realized that if BD gains in this sector,  it will be tough to stop BD progress.   4) No Govt has any vision or clear picture what to do.   I still believe that N-Power is the only option and we need to start today, not tomorrow.  I welcome AL Govt about talking it but I will endorse them only when I see the implementation.  It will take at least 8-10 years but if AL Govt starts the ground works, next Govt will follow through with people pressure.   If nobody starts the ground works and keep all in paper and manifesto, we will be in square one regardless of AL or BNP supporters.   I urge current AL Govt to take bold initiatives, not to get headlines but to get real help for the 150 Million people.  We NRBs are ready to help if required with technologies and finance.   Regards, M M Chowdhury (Mithu), Chemical Engineer Director, Political and Economical Development in Bangladesh. www.chnagebangladesh.org     ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 years needed to ease power supply: Muhith The Power Division remained silent about the possible road map for power generation in the future   Tuesday March 31 2009 00:38:44 AM BDT   Finance Minister AMA Muhith yesterday said it will not be possible to reduce the power supply gap within three years as promised in the election manifesto of the ruling Awami League. "The most critical issue is power supply. Whatever sector we consider to take forward - be it agriculture or non-agriculture sectors(The New Nation) - will not move forward without power," he told a pre-budget meeting with Economic Reporters Forum (ERF) at the NEC conference room. Muhith made the remarks amid the acute power crisis that has been holding back the growth potentials apart from the challenges of the global recession. Prime Minister's Adviser on Economic Affairs Dr Masihur Rahman, Planning Commission members and senior officials from different agencies under the ministries of Finance and Planning were present at the meeting, "I don't know when we'll be able to reduce the big gap of power supply. We thought we'll be able to do it in three years, but now we see it won't be possible," said the Finance Minister, expressing his frustration about the administrative system. He also blamed the governments during the last 5-7 years for not taking any power generation projects. "We're now paying the price." Muhith said: "This is a matter of commitment… of patriotism. This is a matter of public service… I've nothing more to say (in this regard)." He, however, did not give any indication about the possible timeframe of reducing the power supply gap. "Some more time will be required," he said. Presently, there is a demand-supply gap of around 2,000 megawatt power in the country as against the total demand of 5,500 MW, causing an average of 5-6 hours load shedding per day. The ruling Awami League in its election manifesto pledged to double the power generation from 3,500 MW to 7,000 MW during this government' s tenure of five years. Some 10 power projects, both in the public and private sectors, with an estimated generation capacity of around 3,000 MW could not make progress for lack of gas supply. Of them, three big ones are Bibiyana, Sirajganj and Meghna Ghat Phase-II, each having 450 MW capacity. Meanwhile, Petrobangla has decided not to supply gas to any new projects after the year 2011. Instead they recommended the government to set up dual-fuel (oil and furnace) plant or coal-based power plant. The Power Division also remained silent about the possible road map for power generation in the future. State Minister for Power Shamsul Haque Tuku recently said that the government would import power, if necessary, like rice and pulses. Only neighbouring India recently expressed interest to export some power to Bangladesh from its 900 MW power plant in Tripura, but per unit power would cost Tk 17 as against Tk 2 per unit in Bangladesh.

www.buriganga.com

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