Emerging China and the Bay of Bengal THE mariners always feared the Bay of Bengal for its turbulence. However, the advancement of science and technology made the turbulent water the backyard of many powerful navies. The key to control of the waves is innovation. With the technological emergence of China, the Bay of Bengal is slowly gaining a different momentum. It still is a long shot for China to contest the international maritime order. However, if China emerges to its potential, the vitally important Indian Ocean will feel its presence. The maritime security of the narrow Malaccan strait between Malaysia and Sumatra of Indonesia will be the chokepoint of China's maneuver towards the Indian Ocean. The Bay of Bengal will provide the bridgehead of its westerly thrust. China has the option of avoiding the dangerous Malaccan strait by directly entering into the Arakan coast of friendly Myanmar by land from the Yunnan province. The military regime of Myanmar is leaning on China for its survival. However, allowing direct access to the Bay of Bengal will destabilize the maritime order and provoke the west. All depends on how China grows and weaves its growth internally and internationally. In the global financial meltdown, China has converted the difficulty of slower growth into an opportunity to pump in hundreds of billions from its surplus to correct the internal structural and economic disparity unattended so far. The economic discrepancy between the prosperous coastal south and the 1.34 billion nationalities of the west and north China is too enormous to correct on a short-lived glutinous feed. The attention given to the infrastructure when world economy was buying 'made in China' less has given solace to the China lovers. The third quarter growth of 8.7 % and promising performance in this quarter is a clear sign that it is growing again. The danger of internal combustion nevertheless remains high until disparity of economic benefits is mollified by sustained effort. China has a habit of moving cautiously and patiently. It invested generations of hard labour for centuries to build and improve the Great wall to stop invasion from the north. It waited for Hong Kong to join back and designed two economies in one country. If history has any lesson to offer, China is likely to take guarded steps in the world arena while trying to expand its zone of influence. It is soon going to overpower Japan as number two economy of the world. It may add some prestige but China will not be anywhere near challenging the USA and the west combined. Maritime order for another quarter of a century will safely remain in the hands of the aging west. With India as the strategic partner of America, the west is getting ready to meet the future challenges. China is likely to continue adopting soft diplomacy than demand accommodation immediately in the high seas. Meanwhile, China has bought nearly a trillion dollar worth of treasury bond to bail USA out of the ongoing economic crisis. President Obama visited China recently and assured that America will not stand in the way of its growth. Cautious optimism is afoot that a new era of China-US cooperation is in the offing. Such optimism has its drawbacks. Sensitive issues like the integration of Taiwan with the mainland can blow out of proportion anytime. The danger is the value system of China is not compatible with the west. China appears to have established some communication facilities on Coco Island in the Arakan coast of Myanmar, not very far from Bangladesh maritime boundary. Although no major Chinese naval armada has called on Coco Island nor any facility built for any large ships, her communication facilities, radar station, and presence of some personnel has put the west on alert. Many observers are of the view that it is kind of a listening post to observe the naval movements in the Bay of Bengal. It is difficult to predict the future of China at this stage. With the adopted market economy shinning as the driving force, the inevitable growth of rich and middle class will ask for freedom of choice - individually, ethnically and politically. Is China ready to accommodate all these? It is too big to be destabilized from outside; but the economic affluence will invariably ask for liberal values and political choices. If Beijing behaves like Moscow of erstwhile Soviet Union the friction within is unavoidable. There is growing realization in the world that war cannot resolve the problems but cooperation can bring mutual accommodation. The world is moving faster, many state of art technologies are at fluid state now. Modern technologies will decide the future of conflicts. With the existing stockpile of nuclear weapons and delivery system, direct confrontation is already unthinkable. If China is assured of its maritime routes in the vitally important Bay of Bengal towards energy rich Middle East and in the Indian Ocean littoral states, it will have less compulsion for show of force in this area. As people are demanding more value for their money cheaper merchandise has added an irresistible dimension in the international strategy. For this very reason the USA has become the most attractive market of Chinese products. China is showing remarkable flexibility and caution outside its territory. Bangladesh has barely three hundred miles of coastline that opens to sea-lanes with rest of the world. Between Indonesia and Bangladesh, the countries have high stakes in the peace and security of the water of Bay of Bengal. Littoral countries should take proactive strategy to provide maritime security of the area. Bangladesh has a small naval flotilla but not all the time on the waters of the Bay of Bengal. It is the right place for Bangladesh to participate in the collective maritime security. The author is the founder DG of SSF |
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