Silver linings and lowering clouds at dusk Mahfuzur Rahman An extraordinary year it was, the year 2007. In July-August the country was devastated by floods, the like of which had not been seen for a decade. In some areas people could not remember when they had last seen floods of this magnitude. Much of the country was under water, homes were destroyed and lives and livelihood lost. Rivers burst their banks and croplands turned into a sea of rushing water. But somewhere in that expanse of water under a grey sky some people were having the fun of their lives. The villagers might have lost their homestead and the river might have devoured their land, but that could not keep them from a race of rafts—made of banana trees. Lacking boats, they improvised. They fastened together freshly cut banana tree trunks with bamboo spikes and ropes and turned them into rafts. Even if they could find some flimsy boats for a race, this was more fun: these dumb, slow, awkward craft. The race is on. These craft do not have oars or paddles. They are propelled by poles, like punts. There inevitably were winners in the race. Inevitably, others lost. No matter. All were happy: participants and spectators alike. Some returned home. Some no longer had homes to return to. Such acts of defiance towards nature's scourge are neither new nor rare. In the midst of immense misery that the flooding brings about all too often, the people of the country have thumbed their noses at it, and then have gone on to try to rebuild their lives. I have long cherished the image, from a newspaper photograph some years ago, of a young girl swimming back home from a flood relief centre, her head barely above the swirling flood water, a packet of oral saline solution held firmly between her teeth, determined not to lose it. Yet to admire such defiance is not to suggest that the people have somehow become impervious to the recurring scourge of the floods. The many instances of fortitude are still only tiny silver linings to massive clouds. The nation's vulnerability to floods remains as great as ever and may well be on the increase. The floods this year were bad enough. But then there came cyclone Sidr. On November 15 the Bay of Bengal heaved and sent hurricane strength winds and gigantic waves crashing through southern As before, those lucky to have escaped the floods came forward with help. After some initial hesitations, the caretaker government, naturally unaccustomed to tasks of this nature, mounted relief operations. High profile distributions of relief goods occupied television channels. Private organizations, a newspaper group among them, played a worthy role in providing help. Yet there was an almost palpable feeling that popular participation in giving relief was far more limited than on similar situations before. One remembers the mass sympathy leading to mass action in the horrific floods of 1998. Volunteers in their thousands brought relief from millions of donors to the afflicted millions. Such a sense of participation was apparently absent this year. This no doubt was because political parties were hamstrung in their relief efforts. It is kind of easy to forget that political parties, wart and all, have something to do with the popular participation in matters that concern the people. The nation's response to meet the post- cyclone challenge was remarkable. There were many complaints of the initial lack of coordination in relief activities. But the sum total of assistance in money and material turned out to be very significant. Many private organizations came forward with help and the people's sympathy for the victims of the cyclone was heart warming. Even those who have little capacity to help came forward with offers of help. It is impossible not to note how over a thousand poor VGF (voluntary group feeding) card holders of one upazila offered to forego their entitlement of rice for a month, offering the rice to the Sidr affected people instead. In another act of true generosity, slum dwellers in The floods and the cyclone do not of course exhaust the story of 2007. It was an extraordinary year in many other respects too, the difference being only that here the silver linings are even fewer and fainter. To start with, it is not every year that two former prime ministers, elected to office through popular vote, see themselves behind bars. That story would by itself make the year unique. I do not think there is any instance in human history where two political foes who were prime ministers of their country were simultaneously incarcerated. That they have not been convicted does not evidently alter the picture. On the other hand, the size of their electoral support enhances it. The political takeover by an army-backed government in January was hailed in many quarters. There were great expectations, particularly in the context of the ugly scenes in national politics that preceded the takeover. There were genuine sighs of relief. I heard someone say that the change was a 'turning point' in the nation's history. This of course was a possibility. But the young optimist who said it did not tell me which direction the turn would take the nation. And almost a year after I heard it, I am not sure I am any wiser. Things did not quite turn up the way people thought they would. The initial euphoria soon gave way to what can be vaguely called disappointment. Ordinary citizens, more concerned with the quotidian problems of economic survival than anything else, were puzzled and hurt. Prices of daily necessities increased relentlessly. The annual inflation approached double digits and was higher than it had been for many years. Rice prices rose by a brutal 40 percent or more over the year. Prices of other essentials clocked similar increases. People wondered why. To add to the puzzle, one prominent policy maker suggested that the reason for higher prices was higher purchasing power, a contention belied by an apparently depressed level of economic activity. To suggest that the economy is a shambles might be an exaggeration, but not to a great degree. By many accounts, domestic investment is severely depressed, foreign investment has flattened out, the crucial ready-made garments sector seems to be seriously ill, and exports are weak. The loss of food crops due to the floods and the cyclone is very considerable: the fall in the output of rice alone may be of the order of 1.5 million tons, far above the damage caused by annual floods. How soon would the economy recover? An unusually large area of uncertainty hangs over its short-term prospects. There are estimates suggesting that losses from the floods and the cyclone would shave just under 1 percent point off the growth of the gross domestic product. This might yet turn out to be an underestimate. Even if it does not, how the many other problems that beset the economy are going to be tackled? The issues of the longer term well-being of the nation, on the other hand, are being greatly complicated by considerations of the environment. Are the floods and cyclone of 2007 the precursors of worse natural calamities to come, a wake up call? Will the sea level rise, devouring a large chunk of a land-hungry country? When will the Sunderbans recover? Outside the mundane matters of struggle for economic survival, people's initial expectations about 'clean' politics in the future - the raison d'être for the silent January political change - seem to have been cut down to size. This may have something to do with the impossibility of assuring clean government through merely punishing a few score corrupt politicians and functionaries. There is of course life outside the mundane circle of economics and the high platform of politics. I believe the low point in the national consciousness was reached in the month of September. That was when a young cartoonist was jailed for allegedly insulting the Prophet of Islam, which he had no intention of doing, and the editor of the newspaper carrying the cartoon had to tender public and formal apology for his part of the responsibility for the presumed insult. There were violent protests against the cartoonist. Not a finger was raised in his defence. Not a voice was heard in favour of freedom of expression. The stunned artist, his drawing fingers stilled and freedom robbed, languishes. But in the lingering dusk of the year one can draw, if only in one's mind, the stilled artist, gazing anxiously at the lowering clouds outside. --------------------------------------------- Mahfuzur Rahman is a former United Nations economist and an occasional contributor to The Daily Star.
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