[mukto-mona] For Hillary, the number does not add up!

For Hillary, the number does not simply add up!

 

A.H. Jaffor Ullah

 

On March 4 the much talked about primaries took place in Ohio, Texas, Vermont, and Rhode Island.  Senator Clinton eked out victories in three states after 11 consecutive losses.  However, the delegate counts did not alter that much.  Senator Barack Obama is still ahead with 100 or so more delegates than Senator Clinton.  After adding newly earned delegates on March 4, Senator Obama has 1520 delegates (pledged + un-pledged super delegates) and Senator Clinton has 1424 delegates (pledged + un-pledged super delegates).  Senator Obama has 96 more delegates than his rival.

 

The psychological boost that Clinton camp had received after winning the three states of which two were delegate-rich large states and one small state is noteworthy.  However, she did not make the headway reaching the goal of bypassing her challenger in delegate count.  If anyone would have watched her in any TV program in the morning of March 5, 2008, one would conclude that she had come out victorious by defeating Senator Barack Obama.  Her campaign staffers also became euphoric.  Are they paying attention to the delegate counts?  One look at the tally would paint a grim picture for Senator Clinton.  The way the primaries are going, it will be nearly impossible to garner enough delegates to beat Senator Obama.

 

On March 8, 2008 the state of Wyoming with 12 delegates is going to have its caucuses and the Clinton camp is not vigorously campaigning over there.  All indications are that Obama will have a decisive victory in Wyoming and garnering a major portion of the 12 delegates. 

 

On March 11, 2008 the state of Mississippi with 33 delegates will have its primary election.  The state has nearly 50% black electorates; therefore, Senator Obama will breeze through the contest.  The Clinton camp is not active in Mississippi and the candidate is not visiting any city over there.  Her campaign staffers had stated that they are not going to win the state.  This means Senator Obama will capture a big portion of the 33 delegates.  After these two primaries, the delegate counts for Senator Obama will increase.  Senator Clinton will also receive some delegates but she is not going to catch up with Senator Obama in delegate counts.

 

There will a lull in campaign activity for few weeks until the first week of April 2008.  The delegate rich state of Pennsylvania will conduct its primary on April 22, 2008.  There will be 158 delegates up for grab in this populous state.  Right now, Senator Clinton is favored to win the primary in this industrial state but make no mistake about it that Obama campaign will leave no stone unturned to narrow the poll numbers.  The state will be hotly contested and the winner will only gain a handful of more delegates than the loser.  Therefore, even if Senator Clinton comes out victorious in Pennsylvania, her delegate count is not going to catch up with Senator Obama.

 

On May 20, 2008 the state of Oregon with 52 delegates will have its primaries.  The state will mirror its neighbor – the state of Washington where Obama had an easy victory.  Taken all into account, I do not see how Senator Clinton could catch up with Senator Obama.  There is a caveat, though.  Thus far of 800 or so super delegates 438 had pledged to either Obama (200) or Clinton (238).  That leaves about 362 super delegates who are uncommitted to any of the two contenders.  If these uncommitted delegates lend their support to one of the candidates, which is not going to happen, then that candidate will have enough delegates to clinch the nomination.

 

In summary, even though Senator Clinton had won the primaries in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island, the delegate counts do not bode well for her victory.  I have shown in this short article how the delegate numbers are stacked up against her.  Senator Clinton probably knows this for a fact that it will be an uphill battle for her going forward.  Thus, on March 5, the day after her recent victory, she showed the olive branch to Obama and said that a joint ticket is a possibility.  She then quickly said that she wants to be on the top of the ticket.  Senator Obama had dismissed this proposal right away. 

 

I have a feeling that the Democratic primaries from now onwards are going to become outright nasty.  The Obama campaign has said that they will also follow the Clinton campaign to generate negative ads.  Senator Clinton's claim about her experiences in foreign policy and crisis management will be challenged.  Also, questions will be raised about her reluctance to make theirs income tax return since 2001 public. The tone of the campaigns before March 4 primaries were very civil; however, this will change.  Senator Obama had said that his campaign suffered because of the barrage of negative ads by Clinton campaign.  Many Democratic Party insiders are very worried about the consequences of such negative campaigns. Senator Clinton had eked out a slight gain no doubt because of the negative ads generated by her staffers but the price she will pay in near term may devastate her reputation.  Only time will tell whether it was a smart move or not by her campaign to get involved in a negative campaign.   
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Dr. A.H. Jaffor Ullah, a researcher and columnist, writes from New Orleans, USA
                

 

 

 

    

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