Could Obama secure a narrow victory in Pennsylvania to seal the nomination?
A.H. Jaffor Ullah
On April 15, 2008 one poll indicated that Clinton's support was 50% and Obama's was 41%. The same poll reported 4 days later that Clinton's number was 47% and Obama's was 43%. Three days from now the Democrats will head to polling place to cast their vote in the primaries. There is a good chance that the tide may turn in favor of Obama who is doing a whistle-stop tour by train going from Philadelphia to Harrisburg, the capital of Pennsylvania. The train would stop at 4 towns while slowing down in many places where Obama fans will be standing there next to the train lines.
Today, the Pittsburg Post-Gazette came up with their endorsement for Obama. I am attaching the Post-Gazette's editorial, which states quite eloquently what is so wrong with Clinton's campaign in the last 10-12 days. Please read this article to sense the voters' sentiment in Pennsylvania. We read earlier that Obama may poll better in Philadelphia because of African American voters. We also read how poorly Obama may poll in the western part of the state notably in Pittsburg area. This endorsement from a newspaper published from Pittsburg, however, paints a very different picture.
If Hillary Clinton loses the primaries in Pennsylvania even by a narrow margin, this will do her in in her quest for keeping her campaign for the White House. Therefore, stay tuned for the dramatic development in the night of April 22, 2008. If Obama wins the primaries, many political pundits will give their analysis. Of course they will copiously mention that her 'Gotcha' politics let her down in the final weeks of the primaries.
This week quite a few super delegates and some prominent ex-Clintonites such as Dr. Robert Reich had come forward to support Senator Obama. One simply has to wonder what is going on with Obama camping for wrapping up the nomination this early even though he will not get enough delegates to reach the magic number of 2025. In the meantime analysis such as "Time, delegate math working against Clinton", headline such as "Obama hits out at Clinton for negative campaign" is being written and posted by Reuters in the cyber news portal such as Yahoo News.
All the negative campaigns done by Senator Clinton in the last two weeks have brought the worst in her into the fore. This is the sole reason her popularity had ebbed while that of Obama's is increasing among the likely voters. If she manages to eke out a victory in Pennsylvania, still then, she will face an enormous pressure from Democratic Party's top leaders and senior advisers to end her campaign while paving the way for November victory for Senator Obama. All the signs indicate that the senator from Illinois is going to represent the Democratic Party in November 2 election.
As Senator Clinton was engaged in 'Gotcha' politics, Senator McCain was making political speech crisscrossing America, which gave him a bump in his poll number. However, once this internecine fight between Clinton and Obama ends on April 22, 2008, the real campaign for the White House will begin. Senator McCain's conflicting statements, which there are many, will be brought into public forums via serious debates and we will witness that the popularity bump will vanish into thin air.
Let us wait anxiously to see the election results from Pennsylvania. If Senator Clinton comes out victorious by a thin margin, she will have no option left for her but to call the campaign quits. There is this possibility that Obama may win by a razor thin margin. If that happens, Senator Clinton's campaign will be a history. The first person who will give his analysis as to why Hillary's camping bites the dust will be none other than Bill Clinton. He probably will do everything in his power to mend the fence with Obama crowd. The loser in these presidential primaries in my opinion is Bill Clinton. He thought he had a chance to be in the White House and become a co-president. That aspiration is going to vanish in just two days.
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Dr. A.H. Jaffor Ullah, a researcher and columnist, writes from New Orleans, USA
PS. Please read what Pittsburg Post-Gazette editorial wrote
'Gotcha' politics: Meanwhile, the war goes on and the economy tanks
Saturday, April 19, 2008
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
It has come to this: Republicans and Sen. Hillary Clinton have been reduced to "gotcha" politics, attacking Sen. Barack Obama for a few ill-chosen words at a San Francisco fund-raiser.
This cynical attempt to distract attention from real issues -- the growing number of jobless, mortgage foreclosures, record gasoline prices and the war in Iraq -- should be rejected by Pennsylvania voters and the rest of the nation.
Even the broadcasters on Wednesday night's TV debate got down in the gutter by delaying questions on worthy issues until they could batter both Democratic candidates for 45 minutes with topics that either barely mattered or had been thoroughly aired.
Admittedly, Mr. Obama mangled his message last week, allowing Mrs. Clinton to bludgeon him with his own words, Republicans to wrap themselves in the flag and both -- incredibly -- to suggest that this former community organizer who had helped the poor of Chicago is somehow an "elitist."
That description more nearly attaches to his Democratic opponent, a Wellesley and Yale law school graduate who, with her former president husband made more than $100 million since 2001, as well as to the presumptive Republican nominee (the son of an admiral, graduate of the U.S. Naval Academy and husband of a wealthy beer-distributorship heiress).
Sen. John McCain's pandering to small-town America is to be expected. The GOP has been successful at convincing the American heartland it shares their values while lying to them about the reasons for going to war in Iraq, reducing taxes on the top 1 percent of Americans and passing anti-consumer laws favorable to the interests of corporate America.
Republicans would love to campaign this fall on hot-button issues such as guns and religion rather than the GOP White House's losing battle with the economy or its failure to extract the country from wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Pennsylvanians should not be fooled. In a long campaign, all candidates say things they wish they could take back. In addition to Mr. Obama's San Francisco remarks and Mrs. Clinton's imperfect Bosnia memory, we should not forget that Mr. McCain has admitted not knowing very much about the economy and has confused Shiites and Sunnis while discussing the Middle East.
As in other states, Pennsylvania's Democratic primary boils down to whether voters believe Mr. Obama or Mrs. Clinton is better equipped to lead America out of Iraq and back from the precipice of recession, not who made the fewest gaffes.
This week, after interviewing both senators, the Post-Gazette editorial board declared that candidate to be Barack Obama, and we see nothing in this teapot tempest to alter that judgment.
First published on April 19, 2008 at 12:00 am
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