[ALOCHONA] EPW - Farid Bakht - On Bangladesh: Time to Do Deals?

Time to Do Deals?

Farid bakht

Economic & Political Weekly

http://www.epw.org.in/epw/user/viewAbstract.jsp

 

With a weak political opposition and Indo-Bangladesh relations closer than they have been for a generation, Bangladesh's military regime perhaps considers this a good time to attempt a deal with New Delhi over transit facilities. On the domestic front attempts are being made to gain legitimacy by inducing political parties to participate in the elections.

 

Farid Bakht ( faridbakht@yahoo.com) is a commentator on South Asian affairs.

 

The foreign secretaries of India and Bangladesh met on July 17 and 18 in New Delhi. Prior to the event, the Indian high commissioner Pinaki Chakravarty made it clear to reporters in Dhaka that the "transit" facilities and the handover of United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) leaders, including Anup Chetia, would be at the top of the agenda. He also said that it was difficult to understand why Bangladesh could not grant India transit facilities and was making it a political issue. Naturally, he would have been fully aware that the two previous democratically elected governments had failed to sign any agreement, fearful of domestic political repercussions. Discussions about eastwest highways always produce evocative images of "corridors". So why is there pressure now to conclude an agreement on transit?

 

New Delhi-Dhaka relations are at present probably the closest they have been for a generation. Bangladesh has positioned itself as the Philippines of South Asia.  (???) With India's move towards a strategic partnership with the US, both New Delhi and Dhaka have a similar geopolitical orientation. Over the last 18 months, Dhaka has made no attempt to play the China card. Observing such docility, South Block may feel this is as good a time as any to test the strength of the relationship.

 

General Moeen U Ahmed recently shunted aside general Masud Uddin, a supposed hardliner with a hawkish position on India. Now as undisputed leader, and with a friendly rapport with New Delhi and Washington, Moeen's position has reached a peak. Another reason may be that with a debilitated political opposition, desperately wanting to return to power, the next few months are the best time to "do deals". Such treaties are controversial, but an unelected, brutal regime with a record of arresting over 80,000 people may be seen as an "ideal partner" compared to an elected government, vulnerable to street politics. The military backed regime, however, knows it still has choppy waters to navigate over the next six months. It will be more confident if it can get through local polls and dictate events from a position of strength. It will thus proceed more cautiously and provide a smokescreen of "demands" to sell back home. Possibly the best time to sign contentious agreements will be late October.

 

So, the Bangladeshi delegation favoured a comprehensive study, rather than putting pen to paper. It also tabled an impressive sounding counter list: request to reduce the trade deficit, a reciprocal transit access to Nepal, and water sharing. The trade deficit with India ($ 1.9 billion) is a source of disquiet for the business sector. While offering some long overdue concessions, the Indian position was that the range of Bangladesh's exports is too narrow and that it would be better to allow Indian firms to invest across the border and then "export" back to India – not the most favourable reply.

 

Border Clashes

To underline the difficulties involved in improving ties, just as the foreign secretaries were wrapping up the summit, clashes on the border led to two members of Bangladesh Rifles being shot dead. The Indian high commissioner blamed it on a smuggling operation and took a shot at the media for sensationalizing the news. Meanwhile, the government made what it termed a "strong protest", mentioning that the high commissioner's press statement did not explain how the two paramilitary riflemen were shot on Bangladeshi territory. The transit facility is a controversial issue and the regime will be playing with fire if it provides it to India without extracting a heavy price (tariff reductions may not cut the mustard).

 

On the other hand, acceding to requests to hand over ULFA members may be easier – while this would be reported as "caving in", it is not a high priority political issue in the domestic arena.

 

Two high level visits later this year by the Indian army chief, followed by external affairs secretary, Shiv Shankar Menon, will provide the opportunity to see what can be agreed upon this year.

 

Domestic Deals?

The Awami League (AL) leader, Sheikh Hasina, was released after 11 months in captivity. What have the AL and the army agreed to? Released for medical treatment, she is travelling between the US and Europe, organising expatriate AL units. Unfortunate comparisons are being made to the AL's decision to participate in rigged elections in 1986, thus allowing general H M Ershad to remain in power for four more years until civil protests brought him down in 1990. It was not the finest hour for a younger Sheikh Hasina. Many of her "front bench" colleagues today are relics from that era and the concern is that a similar arrangement is being put into place. This would allow elections and a popular victory for a united AL (in contrast to an out-of-sorts Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)). The army's position would also be secured constitutionally.

 

In sharp contrast, in 1986, the BNP refused to participate, thus rendering the "elections" worthless with very low turnout. This time, BNP, or at least a faction, needs to participate to lend a façade of legitimacy, and avoid street protests in 2009. So, unsurprisingly, moves are being made to convince the "other lady", ex-prime minister Khaleda Zia. The authorities released one of her sons, Arafat, on July 17, for medical treatment in Bangkok.

 

The negotiations continue over the other son, Tariq Rahman. To add to the drama, Khaleda Zia's younger brother was arrested two days later, adding some not so-subtle pressure.

 

Multiple Elections

The regime is still intent on several elections, starting off with mayoral and municipal polls on August 4. Of more concern is the army's desire to conduct polls at the 'upazilla' level (an institution set up by dictator Ershad) to create a power base of local supporters. This formula, in turn, was copied from Pakistani dictator, Ayub Khan. In some ways, some things never change. The military continues to strive to invent unconvincing democratic platforms. The chief election commissioner, A T M Shamsul Huda indicated that these upazilla polls would take place towards the end of August or early October (avoiding the month of Ramadan), possibly in two phases. According to the plan, "new" elected politicians will then form an alliance (in reality, a king's party) to fight the general elections, pencilled in for late December. For the moment, the AL is pretending to oppose the upazilla elections. Within a few weeks, we will know if they are determined to make a fight of it or whether this is public posturing to deflect criticisms of collusion.

 

A major sticking point will be whether the parliamentary elections can be held under a state of emergency. The smaller, co-opted parties predictably are supportive while the AL is adamant that it cannot. This is where the western diplomats have waded in. Expectedly, the US ambassador has got himself into the spotlight with two "dinners" on July 15 and 16. Otherwise unwilling to meet or speak together, politicians from rival parties had no problem mingling during these diplomatic functions. There have been vocal protests across the board about "interference". What many had not realised is that, only a few days before, some of the same prominent leaders had attended a three-day closed door conference in Wilton House, in southern England, at the behest of the UK foreign office and the infamous Asia Foundation. The diplomats and other foreign agencies are trying to pressure the politicians into the end-game, to agree to the rules and follow a pre-set agenda.

 

Politicians from all sides are mainly talking about elections and the "health" of their leaders. They are disconnected from the serious economic trouble faced by the majority of the population, barely able to cope with inflation.

 

The script for another political "emergency", on the back of an economic crisis, two years or so down the road, is thus being written. The generals, with external assistance, are laying the groundwork for an unwelcome return to the helm. The politicians prefer to concentrate on their immediate future.

 

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