WRT: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/mukto-mona/message/49499
Mr. Sitangshu Guha is agog again because of Zogby poll. Lest he
forgot it was the Zogby poll which on early November 2004 right
before the presidential election reported that Kerry would win by a
thin margin. And we better know that polls are just polls and it is
the poll that would be taken on election allover the 50 states that
matters. However, all the poll figures do is show the general
trend. Both in 2000 and 2004 all the polls indicated that the
election was very competitive, which came out to be true.
What the trend looks this time? Consistently, Obama is ahead of
McCain by 5-7 percentage points. What happened in the first week of
August? Obama took a vacation with his family to Hawaii. Thus, he
was away from the limelight. In the same time, the world Olympic got
underway. Quite coincidentally, the Russians moved into South
Ossetia and Georgia because the Georgian army moved into disputed
territory in South Ossetia. Senator McCain took advantage of the
situation and fired warning shots at Putin and Medvedev. That struck
a chord with many American voters. Therefore, Obama's absence from
the campaign and McCain's tough talk had given the senator from
Arizona a bump in the poll. This bump in the poll also comes after
the convention. McCain campaign had already said that Obama will
fare well in opinion poll by a double digit number immediately after
the convention. The same would happen for McCain after the
Republican campaign is over. This bump in opinion poll is quite
normal but after 2-3 weeks the real picture emerges.
Mr. Sitangshu Guha is not a student of American politics. We have
seen his unbridled remarks in Mukto-mona earlier this year when he
gave a glowing tribute to McCain after hearing from an American who
told him that McCain will win the election on November 4, 2008.
After Mr. Guha's pronouncement in this forum other Bangalees from New
York rallied behind Mr. Guha when we read about one Bongo-sontan
proclaiming boldly that liberals are despicable. Those
pronouncements were quite revealing! Also revealed in those hate-
laden posts were misinformation about Obama's religious affiliation.
To these newly minted neo-cons Obama is a "Liberal." And liberals
are nothing but a bad news for America and the world.
Now imponderable Mr. Sitangshu Guha again returns to Mukto-mona and
this time he sees that McCain had taken the lead in poll. However, I
have some news for him. The latest Washington Post-ABC News poll
taken in the 3rd week of August 2008 is again showing a slight
favorable trend for Obama. As an Obama supporter, should I rejoice?
No, because the poll numbers are showing a general trend. Unless a
candidate has a double digit advantage over his or her opponent, the
poll number should be taken with a salt of grain. Like other
presidential election that took place in 2000 and 2004, this election
would also be close. Many experts are saying that after GW Bush's
pathetic performance it would be a miracle if the Republican
candidate would win the election. The Congressional elections that
took place early this year is pointing the same thing. Lest Mr.
Gunha wants to bury his head in the sand like an ostrich, he should
know that in all those congressional elections, Republican candidates
all lost and the Democratic candidates came out victorious. It
happened in such Republican states as Louisiana, Mississippi, etc.
I am going to paste the Washington Post and ABC News poll here to
show that Obama is still ahead i the opinion poll. The favorable
trend for Obama has not dissipated as Mr. Guha wishes.
-----------------
Poll shows Obama slightly ahead of McCain
Sun Aug 24, 7:48 AM ET
WASHINGTON (AFP) - US Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama
has a narrow lead over Republican rival John McCain ahead of the
Democratic National Convention, which opens on Monday, a new poll
showed.
The Washington Post-ABC News survey released Sunday indicated the
four-point lead was almost within the margin of error.
Among those most likely to vote, 49 percent support Obama and 45
percent back McCain, according to the poll that was completed before
the Illinois senator announced Senator Joseph Biden as his vice
presidential running mate.
The survey showed Obama continued to lead on the economy, and at a
better than two to one margin, voters saw him as the more optimistic
candidate.
But McCain leads two to one as the candidate with better knowledge of
world affairs and the one who would make a better head of the
military.
The poll also confirmed a shift in the nation's perceived priorities,
with about 40 percent now citing the economy and jobs as their top
issue.
The war in Iraq, which had been the pre-eminent concern in the 2006
midterm elections, is now mentioned by only 14 percent of
respondents, the poll indicated.
Fifty-two percent of those surveyed said they now believe the United
States is making significant progress in Iraq, a shift that favors
the Republican candidate.
But Obama's charges that McCain's presidency would in effect mean
President George W. Bush's "third term" appeared to stick.
Nearly six in 10 polled said that if elected president, McCain would
mainly continue Bush policies.
Bush's approval rating remained at just 30 percent, according to the
survey, and nearly half of all voters viewed the Republican Party
unfavorably.
The poll of 1,108 adults was conducted on August 19-22 and had a
margin of error of three percentage points.
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