The moribund Clinton campaign has gone offensive erecting firewalls against Obama; will it work though?
A.H. Jaffor Ullah
While the Democratic primaries have passed the midway in which Senator Barack Obama had garnered nearly 56 more elected delegates than his opponent; the Clinton campaign had experienced a snag because she lost 11 consecutive primaries since Super Tuesday (February 5, 2008). On that day, Senator Clinton had won 9 states including delegate-rich New York, California, New Jersey and few other states while receiving more elected delegates than Barack Obama who came out victorious in 13 states including his home state Illinois (delegate-rich), Connecticut, Minnesota, Missouri and 9 other states elsewhere. Since Super Tuesday Obama won 11 states consecutively. Therefore, the momentum had shifted in his favor.
The next crucial primary elections will be held in delegate-rich Texas and Ohio on March 4, 2008. If Senator Obama comes victorious in those 2 states, then, Senator Hillary Clinton could say sayonara to her bid for the White House. She was ahead in polls just weeks ago but similar to other races the polls have tightened and she is running neck-to-neck with Senator Obama in these two states.
The Clinton camp is now nervous because they know that their candidate is having difficulty connecting with the voters. The campaign to win more delegates has therefore turned down right ugly. Under this dire backdrop the two candidates met at the arena in University of Texas at Austin on February 21, 2008. Overall, it was a very civil discourse between the two candidates.
Everyone expected Hillary Clinton to be on the offensive in the debate. She brought out the charge against Senator Obama of political plagiarism and she said he represented "change you can Xerox." This barb of Hillary Clinton did not sit well with the spectators who booed her instantaneously. She also said that words are important and words matter but actions speak louder than words. Senator Obama agreed with that, and then pointed out that she lately had been urging voters to turn against him by saying, "let's get real." Obama replied, "And the implication is that the people who've been voting for me or are involved in my campaign are somehow delusional." At the end of the debate she was conciliatory, though. She said, "No matter what happens in this contest — and I am honored, I am honored to be here with Barack Obama," she said at the conclusion of the 90-minute forum. "Whatever happens, we're going to be fine."
Was that a valedictory speech by Senator Clinton? The answer is yes and no. In one sense by now she is realizing that the momentum is not on her side. Also, in order to pass Barack Obama in delegates count she has to win big in Texas and Ohio. Earlier polls have indicated that she was ahead in the race. However, all the recent polls indicate that the race is tightening. In Ohio, where many manufacturing jobs have gone south (read Mexico), Obama campaign had made it an issue that Senator Clinton had supported NAFTA, which made it possible for the export of the manufacturing jobs. Senator Clinton had mentioned it far too many times that she would bring 35 years of experience to the White House if elected in November 2008. Eight years of that come as the first lady. Many analysts think that the way Hillary Clinton brings up her experiences as the first lady, she gives the impression that she was a co-president during 1992-2000. In that capacity, she supported NAFTA and was very effusive about her husband signing the act. Now that in the industrial rust belt of the Midwest tens and thousands of factory workers are out of job, this support of her for NAFTA is not sitting well with the laid off workers.
The Obama campaign is now making it a big issue on Senator Clinton's support for NAFTA. On record, Senator Obama says that he raised his voice against NAFTA while Senator Clinton had said that NAFTA had been a good treaty for America. We shall have to wait until March 4, 2008 to see if Senator Clinton's stance on NAFTA would cost her some votes. As I pointed out, the race is becoming very tight in Ohio and she may defeat Obama in central and southern parts of Ohio where agriculture is the mainstay of economy but in the northern Ohio, which is industrial, Obama may garner more votes. No wonder that Obama campaign is using NAFTA as their trump card.
There is another factor that will go against Senator Clinton in Texas and Ohio. Unlike many other states, these two states allow independents and crossover Republicans to vote in their Democratic primaries. All the polls have indicated that Obama wins hand down among independents (by 14 percentage points). Also, some moderate Republicans favor Obama over Clinton. If this trend continues, Obama will benefit in the primaries in Texas and Ohio.
Quite a few pro-Clinton Democratic political pundits thought that Ohio and Texas were Clinton's firewalls against Obama campaign. President Clinton also said earlier that if his wife wins these two delegate-rich states, then it will be possible for her to win the nomination. But others have pointed out that she has to win very big in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania because she is lagging behind by 56 elected delegates. If Senator Obama loses by 1-2% votes, Obama will still be ahead in delegate counts.
The Clinton campaign knows all of the above mentioned obstacles; therefore, they started a mean campaign against the frontrunner. On February 23 (Saturday) in perhaps her sharpest attack of the 2008 presidential campaign, she accused her Democratic rival of "using tactics that are straight out of Karl Rove's playbook," declaring at one point, "Shame on you, Barack Obama."
Coming out of the debate in Austin, Texas we all thought both sides will refrain from making personal attack. But knowing what is at stake here both the Obama and Clinton campaigns are furiously going after each other. The Clinton campaign now says that the leaflets from Obama campaign are filled with lies and deceit vis-à-vis her position on healthcare reform and global trading, which the Obama campaign vociferously denies. Senator Obama told reporters in Columbus, Ohio, "It makes me think there's something tactical about her getting so exercised this morning."
In summary, the moribund campaign of Senator Clinton is in do or die situation. On the hills of a civil debate hardly three days ago, the Clinton campaign had gone offensive. Is it a disparate Clinton campaign? If that is so, then we may see some fireworks in the next few days. March 4, 2008 primaries are hardly 9 days from now and my guess is things may get very ugly. Thus far, the campaigns for Democratic primaries were civil. And the tone of the campaigns is changing very rapidly. Is it a sign of desperation for Clinton campaign?
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Dr. A.H. Jaffor Ullah, a researcher and columnist, writes from New Orleans, USA
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Dr. A.H. Jaffor Ullah, a researcher and columnist, writes from New Orleans, USA
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