A Very Skeptical View by Jahez Bakhail (http://pkpolitics.com/2008/02/25/a-very-skeptical-view/#more-1395)
The power of scientific theories comes from their resistance to falsification. Each new experiment is actually an attempt to falsify an existing theory and a good theory is the one that survives this attack. This is a useful method to test, at least occasionally, social processes as well. Today, there is jubilation in Pakistan. I want to subject this jubilation to a bout of skepticism and see it can survive it. Thus, below I am writing an understanding of the current political process from a very skeptical perspective with an invitation to subject it to critical view from the members of this forum. I have written it not because I believe in it but because I want to believe in the hopeful mood that we have today. Only by standing the attack of a skeptic that a view gains strength.
Let us see the largest picture, the geo-political context. The only superpower in the world would like Pakistan to support its twin goals of supporting it in its 'War on Terror' and implementing. In this context, it would like to have a contact person with which it can deal easily. At the same time, for the sake of its own public opinion it needs to ensure that this 'contact person' is not seen a dictator; rather as far as possible the person should have democratic veneer. Thus, its ultimate interest is its own interests and not people's wishes. This supposition is the cornerstone of this skeptical view.
As late as March 08, 2007, things were going smoothly for President General Musharraf – the contact person – and the US – the only superpower. The democratic veneer was provided by the PML (Q) and other supporters.
Come March 09 and things began to change. First, the Chief Justice of Pakistan defied the orders of the COAS and the President. Then this personal defiance suddenly received massive public support. People suddenly became interested in the track record of the CJ which led to his suspension. Consequently, everyone began to talk about the missing persons, steel mills and many other isuses. In the minds of many these two issues meant that the Musharraf regime is nothing but a tool for the 'war on terror' and neo-liberalism. In the following months the rule of the General was on the defensive. The restoration of the CJ on July 20th was a major setback. It became obvious to the superpower and its contact person that the script as it was being played was no longer saleable and a new drama needed to be enacted to both satisfy the new found awakening of the masses and the superpower's goals.
It was decided in the inner most recesses of power that the best strategy would be to change the democratic veneer. Instead of PML (Q), a new face was required for this. PML (N) was hardly an option as a replacement given that its was from NS that Musharraf had taken power. Following the old insight that enemy of your enemy is your friend, PPP was approached. A new game plan was created. In fact, there were two plans were pursued. One involved a deal between Musharraf and PPP. The other sought to give PML (Q) an impression that the links with PPP are nothing but a drama. This double crossing was needed because while PPP would be a future supporter, there were hurdles such as President's re-election which could not be overcome without PML(Q)'s support.
In line with the first plan, BB came to Pakistan. In line with the second she was subjected to attack and an apparent rift was created between BB and Musharraf. While the decision to have PPP in power was made, many within the establishment within Pakistan were unhappy with a PPP that had BB at its head. She was no Shaukat Aziz. The best way forward seen by these elements was to have the democratic veneer of PPP but without BB. Thus BB was killed at the end of December.
A key challenge in the plan was getting rid of the PML (Q). Many within PML(Q) had sensed the future and that is why they tried to persuade Musharraf to extend the term of the parliament. This was not to be. Ending the term was the first step in getting rid of PML(Q). Next was the task to tarnish PML(Q) enough that it did not get majority. For this many tactics were applied. It was suggested that PML (Q) might be involved in killing BB. An artificial shortage of essential items was created as soon as PML (Q) left power. It should be noted that this shortage ended soon after the election. Post-election interviews with people are indicating that the issue that hit the PML(Q) most was that of shortages and the resulting price-hike. The whole thing was manufactured for political purposes. The engineered unpopularity of PML(Q) also affected Musharraf's perception but this was a small temporary price to pay. It was expected that with the holding of seemingly free elections, this damage could be restored at least enough to let Musharraf sail through this period.
A great feature of all these maneuvering was that election rigging was not required. This was essential because if there was one indicator for the US public with regard to democracy it is the quality of elections. By ending the need for massive poll day rigging this was taken care of. No need for rigging because the expected result of the free elections and the establishment's desired results coincided.
In all this, there emerged a complication. The lawyers and the media did not budge. Emergency, use of force and manipulation nothing was able to take the steam out of these civil society forces. The determination of the lawyers and media men and women was one of the only two genuine things in the midst of all the rest of the staged performance. The other genuine matter was NS's stance. Based either on a real change of heart or an animosity to Musharraf, NS took a stand that united his party with the lawyers' stand.
The results of the election were as expected but not completely. The ideal result for Musharraf and his US masters would have been a clear majority for PPP with second spot (at a distance) for PML(Q) and the third for PML(N). This way an opposition party of choice would have won, making any allegation of massive rigging impotent. This would have led PPP to form the government on its own with some support from smaller parties but without the two PMLs. The deal enacted between Musharraf and BB will be carried out. With PML(N) out of the picture, judiciary's restoration would have become a rhetorical matter only.
In reality, PML (N) came way ahead of PML(Q). This is the only reality which no one was able to foresee and control and it has complicated the plans that would have suited the superpower. This complication has kept the issue of judiciary alive. Note that apart from PML(N) and APDM, no other stakeholder wanted the restoration of judiciary; Musharraf clearly not, US definitely not and PPP surely not. But the election results have given the issue an unexpected weight. The whealing and dealing that we are witnessing for the last one week, involving foreign governments as well, is actually on this one issue. PPP and Musharraf can go together but a restored judiciary and Musharraf cannot.
This was the skeptical view on events so far. It has implications for the future. Thus according to this view the new government will be a coalition of PPP and PML(N) but with the issue of restoration of judiciary postponed for as long as possible. PML(N), knowing well that it alone cannot restore judiciary, will back PPP in the hope of its support. PPP will play the game of legal complications to prolong the matter for as long as possible. The question simply is how long PML(N) will continue to hope.
The essence of this view is that elections were a farce – a bigger farce than even the massive rigging in 2002 elections – for they were designed to get rid of PML(Q) and get PPP in as the new partners in the international game. The vote was given to PPP by people thinking of it as opposition but soon they will realize that they were made to vote an ally of Musharraf. PML(Q) therefore is the only causality. Even this change was made necessary because of the unexpected determination shown by the lawyers' movement. The net result will be that we will be back to 2002 but with a new veneer of democracy. The greatest loss with be the loss of trust in democracy. The greatest gain will be of the extremists and separatists. Not the power of Gujrat or of the Pakistanis but that of superpower won, yet again.
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