Could the powerful political house of Clintons fall?
A.H. Jaffor Ullah
Unless a miracle happens on March 4, 2008 in the polling places scattered allover Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, and Vermont, Senator Clinton's campaign for the White House may come to a screeching halt. The states of Texas and Ohio are delegate rich; therefore, the candidates have a lot of stakes in those populous states. There is this possibility that Senator Clinton may edge Senator Obama just by a few thousands votes in Ohio but again with the momentum growing by the day Senator Obama may clinch the victory there too. The polls in Texas and Vermont favor Senator Obama to come out victorious while Ohio and Rhode Island are leaning towards Senator Clinton.
The Democratic Party's primaries divide the delegates in proportion to votes received by the candidates. Thus, Senator Clinton will have a hard time to catch up with Senator Obama in delegates count. The Clinton campaign knows this for a fact, but since Clintons are mighty powerful, politically speaking of course, no one is recommending Senator Clinton to accept the defeat and make rooms for Senator Obama to take on Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican candidate.
I read a news story just few days ago in the last week or so in February 2008 in which it was mentioned that as per Senator Obama if his campaign was lagging 100 delegates by now, he would been pressured by the Party insiders to concede the primaries. However, the Clintons are different. Because of their stature within the Democratic Party no one is going to request Senator Clinton to accept the verdict given by millions of voters with grace. They erroneously think that they are somewhat different from the rest of the Democrats. This haughty nature of both Hillary and Bill Clinton is keeping the former's bid for the White House alive given the fact that Senator Obama enjoys an overwhelming support among the electorates.
The Clintons are professional politicians who never worked in private sector or anywhere else. Hillary Clinton grew up in the suburb of Chicago in a middleclass family strongly tethered to Republican Party. During 1964 presidential election when President Johnson was running for the office while still in the White House against arch conservative Senator Goldwater (Republican – Arizona), Hillary Clinton was 15 years old supporting the Republican ticket. Her transformation to liberal politics took place in late 1960s when she was attended Wellesley College. There she became an activist. In 1972, she became a campaign worker for Senator George McGovern's bid to the White House.
On the other hand, President Bill Clinton grew up in rural settings in Hope, Arkansas. He is essentially a self-made person who had to ride out economic storm because of family situation. He attended Georgetown University for his undergraduate degree. Both Mr. and Mrs. Clinton attended the prestigious Yale Law School before settling in Little Rock, Arkansas where Bill Clinton joined the state-level politics. He ran for public office first as the Attorney General, which he won. Later, he ran successfully for the office of Governor. He was the governor of Arkansas for multiple terms. In the late 1980s the Democrats saw that their party's nominee for the White House was unable to win the election because the party was relying on ultra-liberals when the national trend was to elect conservatives. A handful of centrist Southern senators from Democratic Party formed a group, Democratic Leadership Council (LDC), promoting a southerner as the party's candidate in 1992. Being a centrist Governor Bill Clinton fit the bill. The LDC promoted Gov. Clinton's candidacy and the rest is history. While serving as the president for 8 years the Clintons became very powerful. Therefore, when Bill Clinton left office a plan was formed to promote Hillary Clinton for high political office.
In 2000, the Clintons chose New York to be the state where they would settle down after stepping down from the office. The Clintons are very smart for they thought if Hillary Clinton would run for the White House, a liberal state with a big number of delegates and electoral votes would come handy. To prepare herself for the big office, Hillary Clinton decided to run as a senator; she came out victorious in November 2000. In the last eight years Senator Clinton did the homework and prepares herself for the Democratic Party's run for the highest office. She served in the important committees, established key connections, and was not abashed letting others know that she would run for the White House in 2008. She and her advisors thought that with her name recognition she would breeze through the primaries and she would become the presumptive nominee by the time Super Tuesday primaries are over. Her campaign was flushed with funds and many veteran leaders from her party were throwing their weights on her candidacy. However, very little did she know what was coming in her way to become the presumptive nominee of the party?
Senator Barack Obama and a few other Democratic Senators and governor also ran in the primaries but from the beginning it looks as if a freshman senator from Illinois would compete head-to-head with her to win the primaries. Senator Clinton's campaign tried to portray her as a seasoned candidate who will be ready from day one to run the country. On the other hand, Senator Obama's campaign decided to project their candidate as a leader who is wiser and who has a plan to bring the Americans together. While Senator Clinton acted like a technocrat in her stumps or in a debate throwing numbers right and left, Senator Obama was delivering poetic speeches full up to the brim with aspirations. His speeches were uplifting the spirit of his supporters who were attending the rally in droves. He was able to form an alliance of voters from younger generations, American blacks, Caucasian with college degrees. Many political pundits have opined that Senator Obama had started a movement the likes of which was never seen before.
Up until now (March 2, 2008) the Obama campaign has been very successful winning states after states in the primaries while garnering 100 or more elected delegates over Clinton. Had this been reverse, as I mentioned it earlier, Obama would be asked to call it quits but since Senator Clinton is losing the contest no one had the gall to request her to quit. Mathematically, it will be a daunting task for Hillary Clinton to beg more delegates because both the candidates are splitting the votes 50-50. Therefore, going to Denver in the summer for the convention, Obama will have more elected delegates. Even though the Clinton campaign does not see the outcome of the primaries this way, the Republicans are treating Obama as the presumptive candidate representing the Democratic Party. Is it a small wonder that Senator Obama is being scrutinized not only by Clinton campaign but also by McCain campaign?
It is my prediction that once the Pennsylvania primary will be over by April 4, 2008 Senator Obama will come out victorious with more delegates than Senator Clinton. It will be only then that many insiders of the Democratic Party will ask Senator Clinton to concede the race.
Over the years the Clintons have become a powerful political family in America. They are privilege enough to think that they deserve to rule America in a dynastic fashion. Many political pundits think that 8 years of stay in the White House was good enough for a family. However, Clintons are exceptional who may think that this maxim hardly applies to them. Nonetheless, Clintons are going to learn their lesson eventually. They have made their marks already and they should allow a newcomer to take the leadership role. I have a feeling that the voters who are tuned to Obama message are not only giving their seal of approval to the freshman senator, they are also sending a chilling message to the Clintons. Perhaps it is about the time that Clintons take their overdue and much deserved retirement.
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Dr. A.H. Jaffor Ullah, a researcher and columnist, writes from New Orleans, USA
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Dr. A.H. Jaffor Ullah, a researcher and columnist, writes from New Orleans, USA
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