http://www.gulfnews.com/opinion/columns/world/10220100.html
Half the job is done
By Amir Taheri, Special to Gulf News
Published: June 11, 2008, 00:03
Read this: "The Iranian regime supports violent extremists and
challenges us across the region. It pursues a nuclear capability that
could spark a dangerous arms race, and raise the prospect of a
transfer of nuclear know-how to terrorists.
Its president denies the Holocaust and threatens to wipe Israel off
the map. The danger from Iran is grave, it is real, and my goal will
be to eliminate this threat."
Guess who said it.
Well, it was Senator Barack Obama, addressing the American Israeli
Political Action Committee (AIPAC) in Washington last week.
What a transformation! Except for the politically correct
phrase "violent extremists" instead of the more
accurate "terrorists", the paragraph could have come from the US
President George W. Bush. All those who supported the Bush Doctrine
should welcome this dramatic change.
Obama's new analysis discards some of his most dangerous ones of just
a few weeks ago. The threat from Iran is no longer described as
an "obsession". The danger of nuclear proliferation is recognised.
And the Islamic Republic is acknowledged as something more than
a "tiny" challenger.
Obama has also "evolved" his position on Iraq. He no longer shares
the belief of Democrat Majority leader in the Senate Harry Reid that
the US has already lost the war.
Obama has also discarded his pledge to pull US troops out in the
first year of his presidency. He now talks of "a responsible and
phased withdrawal", exactly what Bush is committed to.
More importantly, he no longer says "there are no good options in
Iraq". He now says "there are not many good options in Iraq", which
means there are some!
Many in the Middle East are perplexed by this sudden transformation.
Was it designed to woo the Jewish vote in the United States? But
Obama does not need such wooing. American Jews always vote Democrat
by a margin of three to one.
Two other explanations are possible. The first is that, to win the
nomination, Obama had to court the virulent anti-war groups that
propelled his campaign to victory. Now that he has secured the
nomination he must appeal to the electorate at large.
In the primaries, Obama collected some 18 million votes, or nine per
cent of Americans eligible to vote.
Supposing he also wins all the votes of Senator Hillary Clinton in
the primaries, he would have the support of some 17 per cent of the
electorate.
That leaves 83 per cent up for grabs. Even if half the electorate
don't vote, Obama would still need an additional 33 million votes to
win. Since a majority of Americans think that Iran is a threat and a
growing plurality are beginning to see that Iraq was not a quagmire
after all, Obama has to tailor his message not to reassure them.
That explanation, although based on cynical political calculations,
is better than the second one. This one is that Obama had never
thought his previous position through with any seriousness and that
he may not be serious about his new ones either.
He may be like president William Howard Taft who is reported to have
concluded a speech by saying: "Ladies and gentlemen, these are my
principles. But, if you don't like them, I have others!"
A third explanation, which I prefer, is that Obama, an inexperienced
politician, is learning on the job. This is no bad thing, provided
his mind is not atrophied by dogma. No one gains experience without
making mistakes and correcting them.
Obama should travel to the Middle East to get a feel of the place,
talk to people at all levels, and acquire a deeper understanding of
the issues.
He should especially go to Iraq to see what is happening and hear
what Iraqis think about their future. I know no one who went to Iraq
without a hidden agenda and came back not supporting the building of
a new, open and pluralist society there.
Obama should talk to American civilian and military personnel who
have put their lives on the line to help Iraq defeat its enemies.
Once he has completed his educational tour, he would have to tackle
the second half of the task facing him.
Change
The first half was a change of his attitude of appeasement towards
the Islamic Republic and defeatism on Iraq. The second half consists
of what he is going to do about Iran and Iraq.
Having adopted Bush's analysis, will he also adopt Bush's policies,
albeit with variations to calm his party's virulent Bush-bashers?
That is the key question of the coming campaign.
For if Obama goes the whole way, he would facilitate the development
of a bipartisan policy on the most crucial international issues the
US has faced since the end of the Cold War.
That would tell the terrorists and insurgents in Iraq that the US,
even under Obama as president, will not feed its friends to the
wolves and run away. It would also tell the extremist leaders that
the US would not allow them to dominate the Middle East in the name
of Khomeinism.
The very perception of a truly united United States would go a long
way in defusing the situation in the Middle East.
The perception of the United States as a house divided, on the
contrary, will encourage those who hope the Americans will run away,
leaving the Middle East for them, just to please Speaker Nancy Pelosi
and the small anti-war network that helped fly Obama's kite to such
heights.
The difference between the two perceptions could mean the difference
between peace and war.
Amir Taheri is an Iranian writer based in Europe.
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