WRT: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/mukto-mona/message/50448
On October 30, 2008 in CNN's "Anderson Cooper 360" program the host
(Anderson) asked a respected analyst, David Gergen who was an adviser
to Ronald Reagan during 1980-1988, the question was - what are the
chances of Obama winning the election on November 4? Mr. Gergen
replied more than 90%.
I consider myself a lifelong student of American politics. I have
watched very closely the presidential election since 1972. In 2004,
majority of the polls have said the election will be very close and
it turned that way. The same goes for the presidential election of
2000. Al Gore was 5-6% behind in Mid October but the race tightened
as per the polls. In fact, Al Gore won the popular vote but the
Supreme Court's decision over the vote recount in Florida in essence
put GWB in the White House.
Now come to November 4, 2008 election and what do we see? The poll
has been consistent - Obama is leading anywhere between 5 to 7% and
this is a huge lead by this decade's standard.
Senator Barack Obama's message had been consistent since the Denver
Convention. Juxtapose this with that of McCain's. Most political
pundits including those who are aligned to Republican Party would say
that McCain's message is not consistent. It seems like the main theme
of McCain-Palin's stump speeches was Obama's character assasination.
Like McCain himself the campaign was erratic. The Republican
insiders know that McCain is not going to be the winner. Therefore,
the finger pointing has already started. If our erudite political
analyst from NYC fails to see it, then I can't help him.
I normally do not like to make a prediction but all indications are
for a Democratic victory not only in the race for the White House but
also in the race for House of Representatives and Senate seats.
It is possible for Obama to receive 300-360 electoral votes when 270
would be suffice. Obama already has a lock on 286 electoral votes as
per CNN's John King (date October 30, 2008). This correspondent is
not on Obama's payroll. And ideologically, he is a neutral
observer.
By the way, Obama's middle name is not "Hossain" but the correct
spelling is "Hussein." I think we are not required to write the
middle name but if one chose to do so, he or she should do it right.
Some of the arch conservative radio talk show hosts have shown their
tendncy to utter Obama's middle name for certain purpose. I think
the same goes for the deshi from NYC who loathes the Muslims. To
paint Obama as a Muslim is the game the neocons and pati Hindus had
been playing all throughout the campaign. Unlike these folks, the
majority of Americans have brushed aside this false labeling of Obama.
On November 4, the Reaganomics and the conservative ideology of
Ronald Reagan will be put to rest for once and all. This false brand
of conservative movement had a long shelf life. Americans are
tilting towards the left and this is a very healthy sign. A new era
will be dawning in the wee hours of November 5.
Many deshis fail to acknowledge that this election is a referendum
against Bush-Cheney duo. Since Senator McCain ideologically aligns
with Bush-Cheney, he will have to pay the price. Please mark my
words and trust me, I will be doing a postmortem of McCain's dismal
performance in the coming days.
PS. As David Gergen said McCain has this 10% probability of winning
the election. Therefore, we should not discount this probability and
with a stroke of a luck he may come out winner as forecasted by our
deshi American who is guided more by his ideology than the ground
reality of American politics. I learned from his post that an
election is still decided by the number of political signs one posts
in the front yard. In which world does he live?
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