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Tuesday, November 4, 2008

[mukto-mona] New voters strongly back Obama

New voters strongly back Obama
 

Senator Barack Obama is building up an extraordinary lead among young people, Afro-Americans and new voters, exit polls show.

Senator John McCain is maintaining a lead among men, older voters and evangelicals, but his lead among the first two groups is lower than George Bush's in 2004.

The latest figures from the National Election exit poll, based on data from the majority of US states, where voting has already closed, show that Senator Obama has succeeded in mobilising his key supporters.

And they suggest that the economy was overwhelming the most important issue for voters.

YOUNG VOTERS

Mr Obama is building up an unprecedented lead among young people and new voters in the 2008 election.

He is leading those under 30 by an impressive 69% to 29%, much higher than in previous elections.

He also is leading among those who voted for the first time by 71% to 29%.

This compares to just a slight advantage that the Democrats had in this group in 2004, when John Kerry won new voters by 53% to 46%.

Mr McCain is retaining the Republican advantage among older voters but he has only a slight edge among the over-65s. Many are now worried about how to pay for their retirement.

NON-WHITE VOTERS

Mr Obama has succeeded in mobilising Afro-American voters to his cause to an unprecedented extent, although they were already strongly Democratic.

Barack Obama is winning 96% of the black vote, compared to just 3% for Senator McCain.

And he has also built up a big advantage among Hispanic voters whom President Bush partly succeeded in winning over in 2004.

The Democrats are leading 68% to 30% among these voters, their best-ever result, compared to a 60-40 split in 2004.

John McCain is leading slightly among whites, by 53% to 45%, but Senator Obama has cut the Republican lead among whites by 5% compared to the 2004 election.

GENDER ISSUES

Senator Obama has made a strong showing among women, exceeding the normal Democratic advantage, while fighting a virtually even battle among men, who went heavily Republican in 2004.

Barack Obama is winning 57% of the female vote, compared to 51% of women who voted for John Kerry last time.

And he is slightly ahead among men, erasing a 55% to 45% advantage that President Bush enjoyed in 2004.

Political science professor Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia says that the Democrat's appeal to women has been one of the most important keys to his success.

THE PALIN EFFECT

One group that John McCain has held on to are evangelical Christians, who make up around one quarter of the electorate.

This group has voted by three-to-one for the Republicans despite attempts by Senator Obama to reach out to faith groups - little changed from the previous two elections.

Larry Sabato adds that Sarah Palin's nomination as vice-presidential candidate has helped secure this group for Mr McCain.

However, she may have been a negative for his campaign as a whole.

Over 60% said she was not qualified to be president if necessary, compared to 38% who said she was.

The National Election Exit Poll is a sample of 10,500 voters surveyed on election day after they have left the polling booth on behalf of AP and the major US TV networks.


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