Banner Advertiser

Monday, December 3, 2007

[mukto-mona] Musharraf in Civvies

Musharraf in Civvies: Pakistan Back to Square One *

Taj Hashmi

Professor, College of Security Studies

Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies

Honolulu

 
Summary:

Despite the impending withdrawal of the emergency, Musharraf is as illegitimate as anything; and he will remain so in the wake of the withdrawal of the virtual martial law. Musharraf's getting another five-year term in alliance with Bhutto, by denying more popular Sharif any role in the next government, is not going to stabilize Pakistan. Meanwhile another military takeover is a possibility and further intensification of Taliban-al-Qaeda terror is more likely under another round of military rule. However, despite the dreadful predictions about the country, the degeneration process is reversible with concerted efforts of pro-democratic forces within and outside Pakistan.
 

Apparently, everything seems to be going in the right direction in Pakistan. General Musharraf, the first "elected" military president, has finally doffed his uniform due to pressure from within and outside; one is not sure, if to the detriment or benefit of democracy and stability in this troubled country. He has also promised to withdraw the Emergency by mid-December.

 

Despite the impending withdrawal of the emergency, to most Pakistanis and others, Musharraf is as illegitimate as anything; and he will remain so in the wake of the withdrawal of the virtual martial law. We believe Musharraf's getting another five-year term legitimized by a compliant parliament is only a matter of formalities.

 

Although one may have welcomed his doffing the uniform, there is hardly any reason to be enthused about this gambit in view of his subsequent moves; disqualifying Nawaz Sharif's candidature through the compliant Election Commission being the latest regressive one in this regard. Sharif's popularity and defiance, his considering Musharraf's oath taking as  the President "devoid of any legitimacy, constitutional or legal cover" could have precipitated this coup de grace. As of now, it appears that he is not entering the parliament to stamp the seal of legitimacy Musharraf badly needs to prolong his rule.

 

The polls, which most likely be rigged to the advantage of Musharraf, will have been his nemeses if Sharif's  All Parties Democratic Movement (APDM) remains unwavering. For Sharif, the government's disqualifying his candidature seems to be a blessing in disguise, as his participation would possibly be his biggest political blunder. One is not sure which way other leaders of the APDM, his Muslim League (N), the Jamaat-i-Islami and Imran Khan's Tahrik-i-Insaf, will go. If they remain steadfast, Bhutto's participation in the polls (along with other minor parties) is not going to legitimize and prolong Musharraf's tenure.

Bhutto's reaction to Musharraf's taking off the uniform for the last time was unusual.  On the one hand, welcoming Musharraf's doffing the uniform she said she was "not in a hurry to accept him as a civilian leader". And on the other, as her latest volte-face suggested, she decided to take part in the January elections "under protest". She thinks power sharing with Musharraf, possibly as the next Prime Minister, outweighs the not-so-visible benefits of boycotting the polls.

 

Being aware of his limited political support base, Musharraf would love to integrate Bhutto's People's Party into his alliance of the ruling Muslim League (Q), former pro-Taliban Maulana Fazlur Rahman's Jamiat-i-Ulama-i-Islam and a few regional parties. Bhutto's latest meeting with Musharraf suggests that they will be together against the Saudi-backed Nawaz Sharif. It may be mentioned here how due to Saudi pressure Musharraf had to release the former ISI chief Hamid Gul, arrested in the wake of the Emergency last month. Gul is widely known for his pro-Taliban sympathies, and is alleged to have tried selling nuclear arms to Saudi Arabia.

 

Meanwhile, one does not rule out the possibility of Sharif's gaining defectors from the ruling Muslim League into the APDM. Some top brasses of the ruling party are already hobnobbing with Sahrif. Consequently it appears that Musharraf's alliance will be extra-cautious not to hold free and fair elections. One may assume that by mid-December Bhutto and Sharif will be heading two sharply polarized groups, both having Islamists and democrats as allies.  

In view of the above, the well-known mullah-military nexus, which by now has become a by-word for ruling elite in Pakistan, is likely to strike again. And Pakistan is likely to go back to square one, for an indefinite period. Rigged parliamentary elections would further destabilize Pakistan by strengthening Islamist militants and other undemocratic forces.

 

As we know, the vested interest groups among serving and retired top brasses of the military are not only running a state but also the much maligned "Military Inc." or the Fauji [military] Foundation (worth $20 billion), a state within a state. Consequently it is least likely that relinquishing its undue privileges, the military machine will cheerfully handover power to a civilian government. 

 

Most importantly, contrary to what Musharraf has so far successfully sold to the world, his "enlightened moderation" as the best anti-dote to Taliban-al-Qaeda insurgency, one has evidences to prove his government's duplicitous role vis-à-vis the containment of the Islamist terror. Unfortunately, neither Sharif nor Bhutto has clean slates in this regard.

Notwithstanding Musharraf's immodest claims, his regime has remained ineffective against the Islamist insurgency. Paradoxically, while Carnegie Endowment President Jessica Mathews considers Pakistan as "the most vexing and arguably the most important [country]", Mullah Momin Ahmad (Taliban leader killed by US bombing) considered the country "like your shoulder that supports your RPG. Without it you couldn't fight. Thank God Pakistan is not against us." So much for Musharraf's brilliant role in the "war on terror"! Since the Pakistani military uses Islamist terror as the bogeyman to justify its upper hand in running the state machinery, covert military rule or  "guided democracy" under Musharraf cannot eliminate the Islamist threat either.

Contrary to some analysts' reservations about the compatibility of democracy in Pakistan, one believes that even a faltering democracy is better than an efficient autocracy. Sidetracking the APDM, Musharraf's getting another term with Bhutto as the Prime Minister would be too costly for him to finish his term. Consequently another military takeover for the restoration of order would not be that surprising. Meanwhile, taking advantage of the chaos, the Taliban-al-Qaeda elements are likely to get more organized throughout the country.

Despite the dreadful predictions about Pakistan's turning into a "failed state" by 2015, for example, there are reasons to be optimistic in the long-run. Although the process of bridging democracy to the country is full of wrinkles, the degeneration process is reversible with concerted efforts of pro-democratic forces within and outside Pakistan.

 

*Disclaimer: The views expressed in this paper are my own and do not reflect the policy or position of the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies or the US Department of Defense.



__._,_.___

*****************************************
Sign the Petition : Release the Arrested University Teachers Immediately : An Appeal to the Caretaker Government of Bangladesh

http://www.mukto-mona.com/human_rights/university_teachers_arrest.htm

*****************************************
Daily Star publishes an interview with Mukto-Mona
http://www.mukto-mona.com/news/daily_star/daily_star_MM.pdf

*****************************************

MM site is blocked in Islamic countries such as UAE. Members of those theocratic states, kindly use any proxy (such as http://proxy.org/) to access mukto-mona.

*****************************************
Mukto-Mona Celebrates 5th Anniversary
http://www.mukto-mona.com/Special_Event_/5_yrs_anniv/index.htm

*****************************************
Mukto-Mona Celebrates Earth Day:
http://www.mukto-mona.com/Special_Event_/Earth_day2006/index.htm

*****************************************
Kansat Uprising : A Special Page from Mukto-Mona 
http://www.mukto-mona.com/human_rights/kansat2006/members/


*****************************************
MM Project : Grand assembly of local freedom fighters at Raumari
http://www.mukto-mona.com/project/Roumari/freedom_fighters_union300306.htm

*****************************************
German Bangla Radio Interviews Mukto-Mona Members:
http://www.mukto-mona.com/Special_Event_/Darwin_day/german_radio/


Mukto-Mona Celebrates Darwin Day:

http://www.mukto-mona.com/Special_Event_/Darwin_day/index.htm

*****************************************

Some FAQ's about Mukto-Mona:

http://www.mukto-mona.com/new_site/mukto-mona/faq_mm.htm

****************************************************

VISIT MUKTO-MONA WEB-SITE : http://www.mukto-mona.com/

****************************************************

"I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it".
               -Beatrice Hall [pseudonym: S.G. Tallentyre], 190




Your email settings: Individual Email|Traditional
Change settings via the Web (Yahoo! ID required)
Change settings via email: Switch delivery to Daily Digest | Switch to Fully Featured
Visit Your Group | Yahoo! Groups Terms of Use | Unsubscribe

__,_._,___