dear members
assalamu alaikum
here i am forwarding you a recent analysis of London-based weekly Economist.
Economist first predicted in its 2005 analysis, " there will be no election in 2007 in Bangladesh".
pls click to see current analysis,
may allah save us from this foreign-sponsored puppet govt.
allah hafiz
mokarram
An unquiet periphery
James Astill | DELHI
From The World in 2008 print edition
South Asia has long been a rowdy neighbourhood. But the view from the Secretariat building, the elegant south Delhi seat of India's foreign ministry, will be particularly riotous in 2008. In Pakistan and Sri Lanka, there will be war; in Bangladesh, there will be protests against army-backed rule; in Nepal, a return to war will be a constant threat. Only tiny Bhutan, a Himalayan recluse whose foreign policy India dictates, will be a peaceful fellow resident of the subcontinental hood.
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Who will preside over the mayhem in Pakistan? The hope was that it would be a civilian—for the first time since General Pervez Musharraf seized power in 1999. General Musharraf had himself re-elected president in October, in uniform. He planned to divest himself of it shortly after, provided that the Supreme Court accepted the legitimacy of the October poll. The court, however, may have had other ideas, and in early November 2007, as its ruling loomed, General Musharraf suspended the constitution. Emergency rule has thrown Pakistan's political outlook into deeper confusion.
The general election that had been planned in Pakistan for January 2008 may be delayed by a year or more. In a free election, the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) of Benazir Bhutto, a former prime minister who returned (to a huge welcome horribly marred by two deadly bombs) from eight years of self-imposed exile in October 2007, and the Muslim League (Q), which backs General Musharraf, might each win about a third of the votes. The Muslim League (N) of Nawaz Sharif, another former prime minister, and smaller Islamist and regional parties would account for the rest.
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If an election happens—and assuming General Musharraf is in charge—a long-mooted partnership between the PPP and ML(Q) might be the best hope for stability, though the November "coup" made it less likely. The political troubles will distract the president from an ongoing campaign to defeat a Taliban insurgency along the Afghan border. There is no hope of victory in 2008.
Sri Lanka's government, under the populist president, Mahinda Rajapakse, will prosecute a war in 2008 that is partly of its choosing. Officially, a ceasefire has been in place since 2002 between the government and the Tamil Tiger rebels who control the country's north. But over the past year it has broken down. Having shelled the Tigers out of another fief, in eastern Sri Lanka, the government will try to conquer the north.
Government forces will gain ground; losing the east has weakened the Tigers. But the government will not end Sri Lanka's ethnic strife because it does not understand it. It calls the Tigers terrorists, and so they are. Yet they also reflect the grievances of many Sri Lankan Tamils against a bullying Sinhalese majority, the government's main constituency. So long as the Tamils' basic demands—including autonomy for the north and a proper share of state patronage—are not met, Sri Lanka's troubles will endure.
Bangladesh's will worsen in 2008. Its technocratic administration, installed by the army in January 2007, promises to hold elections in December 2008. It will break its promise. At the army's behest, it has arrested the country's main political leaders, Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina Wajed. The charges against the two women—of corruption and extortion, respectively—may or may not be deserved. But, in the absence of other leaders, their parties demand their release. This gives the army a choice: democracy and the two begums (as the feuding Mrs Zia and Sheikh Hasina are known) or no begums and no democracy. It will choose the latter in 2008. Public disaffection with the government will increase during the year. Violent protests are all but guaranteed.
Nepal, which recently ended a civil war, will enjoy little of a peace dividend in 2008. A key part of the peace process—the election of an assembly to write a new constitution—was due in November 2007, but was postponed. Armed Maoists within the transitional government were to blame. They fear they would wither in a democracy. Under pressure from India, they were persuaded not to quit the government.
Alas, India is rarely so helpful. It is rightly proud of its more stable democracy; yet India has a poor record of meddling in the politics of its troubled neighbours. It has held back somewhat of late. But India still spurns opportunities to do good. In particular, it could do more to expand its miserly trade with Pakistan and Bangladesh. For both countries, this would bring much-needed relief. And India would profit
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