[vinnomot] Bangladesh maybe in square one again

Dear All,

 

I like to analyze what the present situation in Bangladesh and what we can expect in the next 18 months.  Most of the people in Bangladesh had high hopes for CTG when they took the power after 1/11/2007.  Maybe still there are good number of people support CTG activities.  But CTG had made serious mistakes in last 11 months which has make them no point of return.  Let me explain what went wrong in CTG:

 

1) Old proverb saying that never take more than you can afford.  CTG has taken good initiative Jihad against corruption where more than 99% people in Bangladesh are corrupted.  I know few people have provided me the examples that few others countries had been removed corruption from their countries using same strategies.

 

I am not trying to take credit here.  I have asked multiple times through media and personnel letters to CTG to initiate reconciliation initiative during corruption drive on July 2007 in Bangladesh.  My proposal was based on three things:

 

A) To be successfully in anti-corruption drive ,  you will need help from local people.  You just can not annoyed all your people who were suppose to be with you during anti-corruption drive.

 

B) Bangladesh has more 30% underground economy and the whole economy will not survive if you do top to bottom anti-corruption drive.

 

C)  Provide extensive justice to the top 100 corrupted people in Bangladesh and give the rest of the people an amnesty and make clear that if they are found to be corrupt in future at least 10 years jail time if they are found guilty again.

 

2) All the reshuffle of the advisers in CTG and failed to check the essential price made CTG more weaker than ever,  maybe CTG is losing public support even though they have good intention for the country.

 

3) A group people are thinking, CTG might hold the power longer than Dec 2008.  This might be not true anymore since they have failed in many major issues, though they have done so much good except the above items.  So what will happen to CTG? They will give up power and new elected Govt will be in power by Jan 2009.

 

4) The worst thing will happen when new Govt will take power in 2009,  they will let go all the corrupted Tigers more jails and those corrupted Tigers will roam in the streets in Bangladesh.  Their roaming will prove that no body can keep them in jails even they are most corrupted and looted the country.  One of the way this can be stopped if only honest people can be elected in the next election which I am very doubt because CTG is weaker than ever.  You will find that most the convicted person did not appeal for their verdict because when new Govt comes power in the next year, they will re-appeal their verdict and they might be given amnesty by saying miss trial about their cases.

 

So the bottom line,  by making many mistakes in the beginning, CTG might have made bigger trouble for Bangladesh than ever.  I wish I am wrong but my gut feeling is saying these prediction.  I wish CTG success but probability is very slim unless a miracle happens in Bangladesh.

 

Please do not take this prediction as granted.

 

--M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu)

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